Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Michigan State vs. Illinois
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c6e569ea4dcebeddfc45348f477fcf5dec4e5adc04c32014ff390fb0b001be8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Michigan Stateof Michigan State, Illinois
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,393
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,892
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,393 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Illinois | 69c | 1,720$1,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,193.37 | 530 | 57.4%304 W · 226 L | +33.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Michigan State | 31c | 1,000$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.07 | 391 | 44.5%174 W · 217 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed0e…b305backed Michigan State | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Illinois | 70c | 600$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.07 | 283 | 35%99 W · 184 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…1787backed Michigan State | 31c | 500$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345 | 164 | 45.1%74 W · 90 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Illinois | 70c | 300$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 429 | 48.5%208 W · 221 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…e599backed Michigan State | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 24cpaid | +159.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d4…cf9ebacked Michigan State | 28c | 62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +158.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…aee5backed Illinois | 73c | 56.7$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5d…2a88backed Illinois | 72c | 41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Illinois | 76c | 36.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d3…4c04backed Illinois | 72c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcad6…2efebacked Illinois | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.