TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will XRP dip to $2.80 September 29-October 5?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$35,429
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$36,874

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,429 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 8 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8871…830abacked Yes10c9,955$972 inLost-$972.257020%14 W · 56 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick26cpaid+24%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf98b…bfc5backed Yes10c9,892$1,025 inLost-$1,024.7524654.9%135 W · 111 L+16.5wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+8.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf1dc…92e7backed Yes49c775$377 inLost-$376.532524.3%79 W · 246 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-36.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes13c239.34$32 inLost-$31.961,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5481…2841backed No57c175$100 inWon+$751963.2%12 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbabd…3335backed No18c140$26 inWon+$114.221236.8%78 W · 134 L+17.5wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x68d5…23f7backed No61c105$64 inWon+$40.951855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-0.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ee2…46e1backed No73c36.34$26 inWon+$9.9940643.3%176 W · 230 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.