Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will XRP reach $3.10 September 29-October 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00cba2a437e0cb3c5d3fca0c4bf920104efca53e23827c726778c89a74890ac2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,031
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,489
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,031 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8871…830abacked Yes | 32c | 9,457$3,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,016.55 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed No | 42c | 6,499$2,713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,786.46 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaefe…d7d4backed No | 55c | 2,029$1,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$909.82 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ba…c0eebacked No | 58c | 1,865$1,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790.76 | 26 | 80.8%21 W · 5 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…92e7backed Yes | 30c | 1,200$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.5 | 325 | 24.3%79 W · 246 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41be…486dbacked Yes | 30c | 780$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9066…c20abacked Yes | 56c | 728.49$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.42 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa303…a674backed Yes | 58c | 700$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe192…7689backed No | 42c | 580$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +136.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 15c | 384.98$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.43 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 60c | 316$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.34 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb7…93c7backed No | 38c | 260.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.42 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…5433backed No | 70c | 260$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…3335backed No | 15c | 260$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.5 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8f…23f2backed No | 70c | 220$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…dd1fbacked No | 54c | 199$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.66 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x738c…1de9backed No | 30c | 166.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.11 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6024…bf2cbacked No | 42c | 115$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 29cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe425…9e9abacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68d5…23f7backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c66…dc0dbacked No | 80c | 61.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 74cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf793…8837backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will XRP reach $3.10 September 29-October 5?this page
- Will XRP dip to $2.50 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.60 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.70 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.80 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.00 September 29-October 5?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $3.20 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.30 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.40 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.50 September 29-October 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.