World Politics · resolved market
Will Johannes Kaiser come in fourth in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1cbbd4fbbd4304c263f3ce67ed67609132799958ee8eb3d7c92b1e0836b7efdb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,906
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,351
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,906 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe61…847abacked Yes | 74c | 5,146$3,811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,334.87 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 61c | 1,737$1,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.43 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe966…0228backed Yes | 67c | 1,484$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x949a…721cbacked No | 60c | 1,467$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$873.56 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed No | 22c | 1,000$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed Yes | 64c | 728$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd30b…207ebacked Yes | 22c | 459.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +129.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked No | 72c | 458.27$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.96 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc6f…4987backed Yes | 22c | 450.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.07 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0489…ddf7backed No | 78c | 300$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de8…66f5backed Yes | 17c | 269.09$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x442a…7c94backed Yes | 79c | 228.2$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 217.78$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.15 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…5df9backed Yes | 11c | 197.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.8 | 74 | 36.5%27 W · 47 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7767…6ec6backed No | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe0…8348backed Yes | 18c | 129$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x490a…db32backed Yes | 13c | 126.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.2 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 27cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe91f…a9aebacked Yes | 17c | 119$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +488.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0c…213abacked Yes | 17c | 112$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +488.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x777e…d384backed Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.99 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5f…b380backed Yes | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8184…01f6backed Yes | 36c | 83.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf00…0704backed Yes | 50c | 72.4$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…8be9backed No | 79c | 64.02$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.58 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…2c80backed Yes | 31c | 63.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a6…e0c2backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 57c | 31.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked No | 60c | 18.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Johannes Kaiser come in fourth in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?this page
- Will Alberto Undurraga come in fourth in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?No won
- Will Carolina Tohá come in fourth in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?No won
- Will Evelyn Matthei come in fourth in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?No won
- Will Francesca Muñoz come in fourth in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?No won
- Will Franco Parisi come in fourth in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?No won
- Will Félix González come in fourth in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?No won
- Will Jaime Mulet come in fourth in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?No won
- Will José Antonio Kast come in fourth in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?No won
- Will Michelle Bachelet come in fourth in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?No won
- Will Ximena Rincón come in fourth in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.