World Politics · resolved market
Will Franco Parisi come in fourth in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x162578304b5dfd948f5cd50aa0fcb930bc4503dd67db8a12d600a77be29ba8d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,462
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,267
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,462 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0489…ddf7backed Yes | 50c | 693$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.87 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc46f…938abacked Yes | 40c | 514.35$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e57…1006backed Yes | 44c | 424.89$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +118.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x064f…e8e6backed Yes | 6c | 372.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ba…6c27backed Yes | 48c | 319.28$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7767…6ec6backed No | 57c | 300$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x006d…31c4backed Yes | 9c | 297.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 57c | 287.6$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.67 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 46c | 230$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.4 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 39c | 223.72$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.78 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdaf…eff6backed Yes | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…0014backed Yes | 28c | 152.18$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.61 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +100.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 22c | 123.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 22c | 123.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0abd…869abacked Yes | 42c | 119.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ca…bd97backed No | 65c | 115.85$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d01…1645backed No | 65c | 111$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.85 | 120 | 29.2%35 W · 85 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d93…8cbebacked No | 64c | 105$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 169 | 40.2%68 W · 101 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb2…55a7backed Yes | 31c | 102.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf00…0704backed Yes | 41c | 96.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.08 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x290f…7e47backed No | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a6…e0c2backed No | 59c | 80$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5924…a046backed No | 65c | 76.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0121…f82cbacked Yes | 24c | 69.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33e5…1c91backed No | 67c | 63.9$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedc2…ad9fbacked Yes | 50c | 62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0330…eb8fbacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…93a4backed Yes | 32c | 59.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed No | 52c | 59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.51 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 35c | 55.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…e826backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce8…3352backed Yes | 26c | 42.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x958f…a83cbacked No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe088…490dbacked Yes | 38c | 34.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x381c…8ee8backed Yes | 34c | 32.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…51acbacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9357…81ddbacked No | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Franco Parisi come in fourth in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?this page
- Will Alberto Undurraga come in fourth in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?No won
- Will Carolina Tohá come in fourth in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?No won
- Will Evelyn Matthei come in fourth in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?No won
- Will Francesca Muñoz come in fourth in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?No won
- Will Félix González come in fourth in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?No won
- Will Jaime Mulet come in fourth in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?No won
- Will Johannes Kaiser come in fourth in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?Yes won
- Will José Antonio Kast come in fourth in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?No won
- Will Michelle Bachelet come in fourth in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?No won
- Will Ximena Rincón come in fourth in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.