Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Stray Team vs NS Team - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1cdf6f24851aceb76786cf44fbfb6ac3d8a5825b87482a1e8c9791a3cdff5912
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Stray Teamof Stray Team, NS Team
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,088
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,595
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,088 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf3a…fbfdbacked NS Team | 58c | 4,239$2,467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,466.97 | 508 | 50.8%258 W · 250 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40db…ca8cbacked Stray Team | 50c | 3,175$1,589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,586.43 | 540 | 58.9%318 W · 222 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37a8…8b4dbacked NS Team | 54c | 494.44$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267 | 159 | 57.9%92 W · 67 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c81…5518backed Stray Team | 50c | 350.03$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.62 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3d…9488backed Stray Team | 49c | 330$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.3 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad2a…99a3backed Stray Team | 58c | 322.73$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.73 | 237 | 36.7%87 W · 150 L | -17.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Stray Team | 46c | 267$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.5 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…a142backed Stray Team | 46c | 225$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.5 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a1…e38bbacked Stray Team | 38c | 206.39$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.96 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d4…0289backed Stray Team | 43c | 204.65$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.65 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked NS Team | 31c | 199.91$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.13 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d3…bab9backed Stray Team | 46c | 159.54$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.15 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f12…03b6backed Stray Team | 32c | 158.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.7 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe657…b24fbacked NS Team | 33c | 132.6$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.79 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec96…f5d7backed Stray Team | 64c | 113$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.57 | 372 | 53%197 W · 175 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabd9…dc3abacked Stray Team | 42c | 83.46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.55 | 187 | 33.2%62 W · 125 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc15f…223dbacked NS Team | 50c | 81.14$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.64 | 117 | 47.9%56 W · 61 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a3…fad7backed Stray Team | 66c | 74.12$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…ee32backed Stray Team | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 50 | 70%35 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf20…1881backed NS Team | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Stray Team | 45c | 48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 123 | 53.7%66 W · 57 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…581fbacked Stray Team | 46c | 44.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebf5…b1d0backed Stray Team | 46c | 43.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 286 | 50%143 W · 143 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95e9…67b6backed Stray Team | 68c | 42.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 185 | 50.8%94 W · 91 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789a…3dfabacked Stray Team | 49c | 36.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked NS Team | 57c | 30.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 302 | 51.7%156 W · 146 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Stray Team | 38c | 30.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 340 | 41.2%140 W · 200 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a53…71a3backed NS Team | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 185 | 62.7%116 W · 69 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc4…21e3backed NS Team | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Stray Team vs NS Team - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Stray Team vs NS Team (BO3) - BetBoom Streamers Battle PlayoffsStray Team won
- Dota 2: Stray Team vs NS Team - Game 1 WinnerStray Team won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.