Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Stray Team vs NS Team - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeaf275289e69609368d588debde0ee0abc0f8b9b198630741594f41bc89d2d37
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Stray Teamof Stray Team, NS Team
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,588
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,216
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,588 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x40db…ca8cbacked Stray Team | 45c | 4,261$1,930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,330.35 | 540 | 58.9%318 W · 222 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1de…21f5backed NS Team | 50c | 2,331$1,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,165.27 | 304 | 52.3%159 W · 145 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3a…fbfdbacked NS Team | 60c | 1,667$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 508 | 50.8%258 W · 250 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked NS Team | 61c | 750$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.5 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37a8…8b4dbacked NS Team | 59c | 452.53$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.99 | 159 | 57.9%92 W · 67 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Stray Team | 50c | 413.56$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.64 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3d…9488backed Stray Team | 50c | 327$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked NS Team | 37c | 322.62$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.95 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1efb…dd8abacked Stray Team | 41c | 243.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.93 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe32a…a0edbacked Stray Team | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe657…b24fbacked NS Team | 62c | 157.03$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.79 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82a1…e38bbacked Stray Team | 41c | 155.39$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.68 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885a…e1e3backed NS Team | 64c | 150$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec96…f5d7backed Stray Team | 36c | 111$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.04 | 372 | 53%197 W · 175 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a9…e7d8backed Stray Team | 50c | 82.14$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.07 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Stray Team | 51c | 52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.28 | 123 | 53.7%66 W · 57 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…581fbacked Stray Team | 50c | 46.81$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.41 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Stray Team | 50c | 46.62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 340 | 41.2%140 W · 200 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2965…89ebbacked NS Team | 65c | 39.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 102 | 51%52 W · 50 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0324…bed7backed NS Team | 65c | 30.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28f5…2035backed Stray Team | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 332 | 65.4%217 W · 115 L | +23.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked NS Team | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 302 | 51.7%156 W · 146 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf07b…def2backed Stray Team | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb625…7f8abacked NS Team | 65c | 22.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Stray Team vs NS Team - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Stray Team vs NS Team (BO3) - BetBoom Streamers Battle PlayoffsStray Team won
- Dota 2: Stray Team vs NS Team - Game 2 WinnerStray Team won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.