TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Map Handicap: URSA (-1.5) vs Rebels Gaming (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Rebels Gamingof Ursa, Rebels Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,382

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,382 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd055…28d0backed Ursa45c2,970$1,337 inLost-$1,336.7565946.9%309 W · 350 L+18.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3db4…d69bbacked Rebels Gaming55c2,000$1,100 inWon+$90075356.8%428 W · 325 L+48.1wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+13.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd8b6…c7dbbacked Rebels Gaming54c1,110$597 inWon+$512.8236253.3%193 W · 169 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x906f…2877backed Rebels Gaming57c445.15$254 inWon+$191.4165254.3%354 W · 298 L+25.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x523e…3128backed Ursa44c400$176 inLost-$17615544.5%69 W · 86 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebf8…7d2bbacked Ursa45c300$135 inLost-$13515355.6%85 W · 68 L+8.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x588d…3f41backed Ursa46c284$129 inLost-$129.4983643.5%364 W · 472 L-9.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf13…ed3dbacked Ursa50c250$125 inLost-$1258633.7%29 W · 57 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-34.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb04b…e2d4backed Rebels Gaming55c200$110 inWon+$9012752%66 W · 61 L+9.2wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+14.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa62c…a3c1backed Rebels Gaming56c197.04$111 inWon+$85.8810651.9%55 W · 51 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3685…6d99backed Ursa50c110$55 inLost-$5512948.1%62 W · 67 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+21.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc0d4…0289backed Ursa43c79.07$34 inLost-$3417746.3%82 W · 95 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcf0…b95dbacked Rebels Gaming63c72.71$46 inWon+$26.918751.3%96 W · 91 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-0.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c8c…2359backed Ursa45c65$29 inLost-$29.159351.6%48 W · 45 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a0c…3ccebacked Ursa37c57.43$21 inLost-$21.2541640.6%169 W · 247 L+11.4wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x29f8…ffa9backed Ursa45c33.29$15 inLost-$14.9843239.1%169 W · 263 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x171f…d613backed Rebels Gaming57c32$18 inWon+$13.766251.6%32 W · 30 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49ec…ac1cbacked Rebels Gaming63c26$16 inWon+$9.629538.9%37 W · 58 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-22.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd711…749cbacked Rebels Gaming55c18.84$10 inWon+$8.4811655.2%64 W · 52 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.