CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Rebels Gaming vs Ursa (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1bb8dcc21c2e3678dc6add494684be56c271c94ca7fffd9b4eae15853d4a384b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rebels Gamingof Rebels Gaming, Ursa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,141
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,141 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xda17…abc5backed Ursa | 40c | 1,775$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.61 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Ursa | 31c | 1,043$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.58 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Rebels Gaming | 27c | 997.88$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.96 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Ursa | 26c | 882.05$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.5 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Rebels Gaming | 68c | 552.33$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.68 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7370…62bbbacked Ursa | 10c | 519$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a011backed Rebels Gaming | 61c | 475.99$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.15 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Ursa | 37c | 451$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.63 | 156 | 41%64 W · 92 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Rebels Gaming | 62c | 425.39$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.52 | 807 | 44.6%360 W · 447 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b4…834ebacked Rebels Gaming | 71c | 424.96$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.96 | 95 | 61.1%58 W · 37 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…04ebbacked Rebels Gaming | 65c | 400$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a84…0e54backed Ursa | 38c | 300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…ebfbbacked Ursa | 34c | 276$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b16…f4adbacked Ursa | 32c | 270$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32a8…a274backed Ursa | 32c | 221$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c84…4effbacked Ursa | 34c | 205$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6179…6f80backed Ursa | 42c | 189.28$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.39 | 503 | 40.2%202 W · 301 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b48…21e8backed Ursa | 34c | 187$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eab…1c1dbacked Rebels Gaming | 66c | 178$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f9…d587backed Ursa | 26c | 165.03$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.91 | 350 | 33.4%117 W · 233 L | +22.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa16f…abbebacked Rebels Gaming | 66c | 158$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf1c…2e06backed Rebels Gaming | 68c | 130$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x598e…d2f0backed Rebels Gaming | 66c | 128$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf146…ffbbbacked Rebels Gaming | 68c | 125$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11bc…4c86backed Rebels Gaming | 66c | 125$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa48d…04c8backed Rebels Gaming | 68c | 120$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8359…5944backed Ursa | 46c | 118$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.25 | 697 | 32%223 W · 474 L | -46.0wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02da…78ecbacked Ursa | 34c | 114$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ec…6ce1backed Rebels Gaming | 30c | 110$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked Rebels Gaming | 60c | 101.67$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.67 | 1,352 | 52%703 W · 649 L | +29.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b95…07e5backed Ursa | 10c | 99.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 324 | 43.5%141 W · 183 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb206…090dbacked Rebels Gaming | 66c | 98$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…327bbacked Rebels Gaming | 68c | 95$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8be4…87b1backed Rebels Gaming | 66c | 93$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…603ebacked Rebels Gaming | 57c | 89.28$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.39 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c7…4459backed Ursa | 35c | 86.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6d…9d6abacked Ursa | 67c | 75.91$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.86 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked Ursa | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 916 | 48.9%448 W · 468 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Rebels Gaming | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 527 | 55.8%294 W · 233 L | +23.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Ursa | 38c | 52.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 156 | 48.1%75 W · 81 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6b…a179backed Ursa | 30c | 52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Rebels Gaming | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 956 | 42.6%407 W · 549 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed Ursa | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 1,216 | 40.1%488 W · 728 L | -65.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Ursa | 37c | 36.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 958 | 49.8%477 W · 481 L | -17.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe564…221abacked Ursa | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,078 | 32%345 W · 733 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked Rebels Gaming | 55c | 20.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb7…dceabacked Rebels Gaming | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2174…44ffbacked Rebels Gaming | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5238…ed2bbacked Rebels Gaming | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Rebels Gaming vs Ursa (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stagethis page
- Counter-Strike: Rebels Gaming vs Ursa - Map 1 WinnerRebels Gaming won
- Counter-Strike: Rebels Gaming vs Ursa - Map 2 WinnerRebels Gaming won
- Map Handicap: URSA (-1.5) vs Rebels Gaming (+1.5)Rebels Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.