Serie A · resolved market
Genoa vs. Fiorentina: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1cfcee2c210668cb654f71568cfd07af0c111417d3b009013bd916ffc768d101
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,754
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,428
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,754 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 66c | 2,506$1,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,659.61 | 333 | 57.4%191 W · 142 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf00e…00f4backed Over | 34c | 2,194$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,451.17 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 58c | 1,425$828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$827.67 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x106b…4e8bbacked Over | 33c | 1,070$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.7 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 66c | 596$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.36 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68d6…cfb9backed Over | 35c | 566.08$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.08 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x27df…e67cbacked Over | 34c | 444.39$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.39 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 68c | 368.96$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.96 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 65c | 333$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.45 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed Under | 63c | 300$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 86 | 59.3%51 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5244…23d9backed Over | 78c | 294$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.62 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 67c | 255.17$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.74 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 25c | 211$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.21 | 592 | 40.7%241 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…f71cbacked Over | 33c | 149.98$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.49 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +7.1wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xab90…5793backed Over | 67c | 148.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.47 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 35c | 142.83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.26 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 67c | 113.63$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.13 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe02a…8e83backed Over | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 34c | 97.72$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.88 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d4…8264backed Under | 67c | 82.82$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c9…4fa8backed Under | 65c | 19.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Genoa vs. Fiorentina: O/U 2.5this page
- Genoa vs. Fiorentina: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Spread: Fiorentina (-0.5)Genoa won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.