World Politics · resolved market
Will the red bloc win more than 92 seats in the Norwegian election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d09a54497e9d2bad4ed6e725e6bd9831eceff98ee3be8882ad202e9cd81d0e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,577
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,478
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,577 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 18c | 3,655$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.79 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 7c | 1,762$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 18c | 1,103$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.25 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 21c | 330.28$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.91 | 197 | 42.6%84 W · 113 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 203 | 25.6%52 W · 151 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 11c | 261.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 5c | 220$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 14c | 186$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc891…1917backed Yes | 12c | 158$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 120 | 40%48 W · 72 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9a…ed80backed Yes | 38c | 61.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed No | 60c | 46.03$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 73c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 79c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the red bloc win more than 92 seats in the Norwegian election?this page
- Will the red bloc win between 78 and 80 seats in the Norwegian election?No won
- Will the red bloc win between 81 and 83 seats in the Norwegian election?No won
- Will the red bloc win between 84 and 86 seats in the Norwegian election?No won
- Will the red bloc win between 87 and 89 seats in the Norwegian election?Yes won
- Will the red bloc win between 90 and 92 seats in the Norwegian election?No won
- Will the red bloc win less than 78 seats in the Norwegian election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.