South American Leagues · resolved market
Carabobo FC vs. CA River Plate: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d2dd02810e466cd1a7ca9b105728f5c58bd3a0359e7051dc18194e07a8361fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,500
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,446
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,500 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 13,219$7,394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,393.72 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 41c | 7,999$3,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,739.59 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 47c | 4,255$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,255.14 | 171 | 46.2%79 W · 92 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Over | 63c | 2,152$1,366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.69 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 39c | 1,772$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.21 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 40c | 1,237$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.26 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Under | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +8.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7e…6d00backed Over | 62c | 809.95$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.95 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 56c | 759.17$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.92 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd73…4da1backed Over | 39c | 732.9$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.07 | 153 | 26.1%40 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 38c | 688.88$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.07 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 58c | 657.8$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.7 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0def…4ddbbacked Over | 55c | 499.99$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x08c4…e6a5backed Over | 65c | 464.97$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.97 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 55cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 46c | 299.94$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.97 | 132 | 47.7%63 W · 69 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcb…f3afbacked Under | 39c | 210.26$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Over | 33c | 207.64$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.93 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb792…fa38backed Under | 68c | 188.21$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.98 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 33c | 167.83$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.39 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad84…1897backed Over | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 124 | 39.5%49 W · 75 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Over | 37c | 130$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.9 | 143 | 35.7%51 W · 92 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 42c | 70.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 62c | 59.67$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Over | 64c | 54.29$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 162 | 66%107 W · 55 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 109 | 46.8%51 W · 58 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa7…303dbacked Under | 58c | 48.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 58c | 48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under | 59c | 40.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 192 | 64.1%123 W · 69 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Under | 57c | 31.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 333 | 65.5%218 W · 115 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 39c | 29.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 308 | 58.4%180 W · 128 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 46c | 25.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 56c | 20.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Under | 59c | 19.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 167 | 59.9%100 W · 67 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Under | 59c | 18.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Carabobo FC vs. CA River Plate: O/U 1.5this page
- Carabobo FC vs. CA River Plate: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Carabobo FC vs. CA River Plate: O/U 2.5Over won
- Carabobo FC vs. CA River Plate: O/U 3.5Under won
- Carabobo FC vs. CA River Plate: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CA River Plate (-1.5)Carabobo FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.