South American Leagues · resolved market
Carabobo FC vs. CA River Plate: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0dad368a2692468d8032aeebdff1aab98d96295a419dbe9687de3e9d2270f6ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,821
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,563
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,821 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 36c | 8,367$3,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,353.3 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 73c | 7,231$5,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,245.06 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76aa…eff9backed Under | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +4.4wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +35%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 61c | 4,168$2,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,535.79 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 39c | 4,000$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,439.88 | 171 | 46.2%79 W · 92 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 62c | 1,497$921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$921.25 | 650 | 58%377 W · 273 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 62c | 1,483$913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$912.57 | 412 | 56.6%233 W · 179 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 20c | 1,026$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.87 | 147 | 27.2%40 W · 107 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 60c | 851.04$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.98 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 76c | 753.29$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.55 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 19c | 748.09$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.09 | 191 | 35.1%67 W · 124 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 74c | 670.74$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.84 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Over | 30c | 618.68$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.1 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 67c | 580.96$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.04 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 61c | 517.24$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.11 | 278 | 55.4%154 W · 124 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80aa…e8eabacked Under | 5c | 486.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 60c | 334$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.4 | 507 | 46.7%237 W · 270 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd73…4da1backed Over | 15c | 330$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 153 | 26.1%40 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4c…39c0backed Under | 10c | 322$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +319.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Over | 33c | 300$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Over | 14c | 270.28$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.44 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +8.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 74c | 248.37$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.79 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Under | 61c | 215.89$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.69 | 332 | 66.3%220 W · 112 L | +24.8wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…c87bbacked Under | 62c | 202.3$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.43 | 196 | 59.7%117 W · 79 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…3914backed Over | 36c | 181.07$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.31 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 65c | 174.65$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.52 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 60c | 150$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.37 | 787 | 56.4%444 W · 343 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 39c | 145.98$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.05 | 213 | 49.8%106 W · 107 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Under | 61c | 131.15$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 388 | 61.3%238 W · 150 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 60c | 101.93$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.16 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 60c | 96.44$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.86 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 45c | 71.71$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.44 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under | 55c | 71.71$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.44 | 337 | 45.4%153 W · 184 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23bc…5487backed Under | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 129 | 48.1%62 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda39…1865backed Under | 61c | 64.33$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…95cabacked Under | 61c | 55.78$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…d4e9backed Under | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce4…da39backed Over | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Over | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 109 | 46.8%51 W · 58 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec3e…11c0backed Under | 74c | 33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 308 | 58.4%180 W · 128 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 65c | 29.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4988…c244backed Under | 62c | 27.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Under | 61c | 20.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 286 | 65%186 W · 100 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Under | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 108 | 62%67 W · 41 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a29…836dbacked Under | 62c | 18.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Under | 74c | 17.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Carabobo FC vs. CA River Plate: O/U 2.5this page
- Carabobo FC vs. CA River Plate: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Carabobo FC vs. CA River Plate: O/U 1.5Over won
- Carabobo FC vs. CA River Plate: O/U 3.5Under won
- Carabobo FC vs. CA River Plate: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CA River Plate (-1.5)Carabobo FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.