Tennis · resolved market
Sabalenka vs. Baptiste: Match O/U 21.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d690c02412cdcdc72509e492b1dda8e0aa6896e27ee2dc4b43a50ff50d0593a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,316
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,316 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x06e1…ecdbbacked Over | 40c | 425.59$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 489 | 35.8%175 W · 314 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 34c | 399.38$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.55 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed Under | 71c | 352.11$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.11 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe11c…c7f7backed Under | 67c | 316.6$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.05 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Over | 29c | 307.22$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.5 | 671 | 44.7%300 W · 371 L | +30.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b40…8ab4backed Under | 63c | 266.34$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.15 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ece…8786backed Over | 40c | 249$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 155 | 48.4%75 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x998e…5318backed Under | 67c | 214.44$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.56 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f8…ae2ebacked Under | 63c | 158.12$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.06 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +205.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 61c | 133$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.88 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Under | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 401 | 41.9%168 W · 233 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Over | 34c | 82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 556 | 60.3%335 W · 221 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9740…2eeebacked Over | 36c | 80.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33be…800cbacked Under | 58c | 69.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 45c | 63.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 39c | 55.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 1,444 | 38%548 W · 896 L | -46.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 35c | 52.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 288 | 35.1%101 W · 187 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 63c | 51.76$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 60c | 46.36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 770 | 47.9%369 W · 401 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Over | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Under | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 474 | 53.2%252 W · 222 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Over | 49c | 39.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Under | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1,276 | 61%778 W · 498 L | +27.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 40c | 29.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 572 | 52.3%299 W · 273 L | +17.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…b2d9backed Under | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sabalenka vs. Baptiste: Match O/U 21.5this page
- Aryna Sabalenka vs. Hailey Baptiste: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Miami Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Hailey BaptisteAryna Sabalenka won
- Sabalenka vs. Baptiste: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Sabalenka vs. Baptiste: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs BaptisteSabalenka won
- Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Baptiste (+1.5)Sabalenka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.