Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Baptiste (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21b032bc2b6f3dc96ac01899ba5510ac8df5cc4242d31ebe92aa92e776a9af02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sabalenkaof Sabalenka, Baptiste
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,211
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,211 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f3c…2f57backed Baptiste | 32c | 7,611$2,456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,456.35 | 307 | 40.7%125 W · 182 L | -23.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd52…df69backed Sabalenka | 67c | 5,717$3,830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,886.55 | 265 | 45.3%120 W · 145 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Baptiste | 27c | 1,034$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.75 | 288 | 35.1%101 W · 187 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Sabalenka | 70c | 1,026$718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.12 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Baptiste | 27c | 636.51$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.39 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61ec…838fbacked Sabalenka | 74c | 608.11$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.11 | 188 | 68.6%129 W · 59 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…40a5backed Baptiste | 35c | 518.99$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 1,118 | 42.8%479 W · 639 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…ba33backed Sabalenka | 73c | 434.5$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.58 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Sabalenka | 71c | 421.32$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.32 | 2,145 | 54.2%1,162 W · 983 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Sabalenka | 73c | 342.47$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.47 | 957 | 42.1%403 W · 554 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Baptiste | 31c | 336.28$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.84 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Baptiste | 26c | 299.97$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.99 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa307…8ea3backed Baptiste | 28c | 298.95$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.52 | 227 | 47.6%108 W · 119 L | +14.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Baptiste | 28c | 290.6$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.37 | 1,028 | 33.6%345 W · 683 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Baptiste | 29c | 286$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.94 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Sabalenka | 72c | 278$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.84 | 898 | 50.1%450 W · 448 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…22dfbacked Sabalenka | 73c | 273.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.97 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61af…aa01backed Sabalenka | 71c | 214.69$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.44 | 333 | 64.9%216 W · 117 L | -19.4wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf294…7967backed Sabalenka | 72c | 199.99$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 123 | 22%27 W · 96 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Sabalenka | 64c | 183.05$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.23 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49e1…52febacked Sabalenka | 73c | 178.08$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.08 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Sabalenka | 70c | 166$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.37 | 556 | 60.3%335 W · 221 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Baptiste | 26c | 135.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…f879backed Sabalenka | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4790…2dd7backed Sabalenka | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba5a…344cbacked Sabalenka | 68c | 127.51$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.66 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdae3…cf78backed Baptiste | 48c | 112.39$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.57 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a16…de20backed Sabalenka | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 168 | 56%94 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f04…6a54backed Baptiste | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9712…0c47backed Sabalenka | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26fb…67b8backed Sabalenka | 63c | 98.69$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.23 | 651 | 57.1%372 W · 279 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759c…05e2backed Sabalenka | 72c | 91.91$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.91 | 196 | 49%96 W · 100 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Sabalenka | 68c | 91$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 1,444 | 38%548 W · 896 L | -46.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Baptiste | 34c | 88.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 606 | 41.6%252 W · 354 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Baptiste | 28c | 84.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa778…c3f7backed Baptiste | 29c | 81.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Baptiste | 31c | 78.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa132…6655backed Sabalenka | 75c | 70.09$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Sabalenka | 68c | 68.56$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93c8…adffbacked Baptiste | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 268 | 47%126 W · 142 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe52e…ac6dbacked Baptiste | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 170 | 51.8%88 W · 82 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff7f…bb30backed Baptiste | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Baptiste | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca1…57e4backed Baptiste | 34c | 46.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc88e…636cbacked Sabalenka | 72c | 44.2$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Sabalenka | 68c | 43.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0483…483bbacked Sabalenka | 72c | 41.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Sabalenka | 68c | 39.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 153 | 53.6%82 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f25…442cbacked Sabalenka | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd402…5a50backed Sabalenka | 73c | 33.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 296 | 61.5%182 W · 114 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5aa…1ebabacked Sabalenka | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe27c…79e0backed Sabalenka | 70c | 31.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 181 | 58.6%106 W · 75 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x998e…5318backed Sabalenka | 74c | 31.08$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Sabalenka | 55c | 28.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 572 | 52.3%299 W · 273 L | +17.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…06d9backed Baptiste | 46c | 24.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64c3…75abbacked Sabalenka | 69c | 23.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Sabalenka | 66c | 23.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae5…40e1backed Sabalenka | 74c | 20.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6af…532dbacked Sabalenka | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2167…b8a5backed Sabalenka | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 64cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6d…ece3backed Sabalenka | 74c | 18.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6f…f09dbacked Sabalenka | 71c | 18.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Sabalenka | 69c | 14.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Baptiste (+1.5)this page
- Aryna Sabalenka vs. Hailey Baptiste: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Miami Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Hailey BaptisteAryna Sabalenka won
- Sabalenka vs. Baptiste: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Sabalenka vs. Baptiste: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Sabalenka vs. Baptiste: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs BaptisteSabalenka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.