Tennis · resolved market
Zagreb: Lukas Neumayer vs Shintaro Mochizuki
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d759d638f41f8bfa39c3219542d40bb5596695e7717a913481085df8c950e6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lukas Neumayerof Lukas Neumayer, Shintaro Mochizuki
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,416
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,863
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,416 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 3c | 6,326$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.5 | 9,038 | 36.1%3,266 W · 5,772 L | -196.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…5051backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 8c | 3,039$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.85 | 975 | 7.9%77 W · 898 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Shintaro Mochizuki | 12c | 2,697$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.28 | 4,253 | 45%1,912 W · 2,341 L | +20.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 2c | 1,040$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 8,702 | 42.6%3,708 W · 4,994 L | -165.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe521…9caebacked Shintaro Mochizuki | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 445 | 27.2%121 W · 324 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 11c | 601.27$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.54 | 288 | 35.1%101 W · 187 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe44c…32a5backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 9c | 346.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 222 | 8.6%19 W · 203 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Shintaro Mochizuki | 20c | 316.64$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.36 | 2,229 | 45%1,002 W · 1,227 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 12c | 301.57$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddf5…aaa3backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 22c | 261.01$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 692 | 53.3%369 W · 323 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Shintaro Mochizuki | 21c | 212.78$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.68 | 3,319 | 48.4%1,605 W · 1,714 L | -52.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Shintaro Mochizuki | 10c | 199.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 1,028 | 43.3%445 W · 583 L | -24.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x150c…add3backed Lukas Neumayer | 80c | 169.37$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.37 | 206 | 70.4%145 W · 61 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf83…915dbacked Shintaro Mochizuki | 12c | 169.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 646 | 37.2%240 W · 406 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc39e…b58bbacked Lukas Neumayer | 78c | 132.88$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Lukas Neumayer | 79c | 120$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 3,901 | 50.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7f…a844backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 14c | 110.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 743 | 46.3%344 W · 399 L | -12.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 15c | 103.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Shintaro Mochizuki | 17c | 101.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 1,354 | 43.9%595 W · 759 L | -62.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x012d…9db6backed Lukas Neumayer | 79c | 101.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 855 | 68.3%584 W · 271 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f6…a5eebacked Lukas Neumayer | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 599 | 54.9%329 W · 270 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 21c | 75.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 248 | 37.5%93 W · 155 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Lukas Neumayer | 75c | 59.25$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 790 | 62.2%491 W · 299 L | +25.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0862…dc29backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 22c | 51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 513 | 39.4%202 W · 311 L | -14.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ded…68a3backed Lukas Neumayer | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 885 | 60.2%533 W · 352 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31dd…7159backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 22c | 45.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 903 | 40.2%363 W · 540 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 25c | 42.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a37…4daebacked Lukas Neumayer | 75c | 39.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 134 | 51.5%69 W · 65 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Lukas Neumayer | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1,276 | 61%778 W · 498 L | +27.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Lukas Neumayer | 80c | 24.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 315 | 63.5%200 W · 115 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Lukas Neumayer | 75c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 1,794 | 60.2%1,080 W · 714 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee11…19a9backed Lukas Neumayer | 80c | 15.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.14 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Lukas Neumayer | 77c | 15.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4427…d7a8backed Lukas Neumayer | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -9.3wins | -0.20per pick | 64cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.