Asian League · resolved market
FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Tōkyō Verdy: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d823d8a0bfff5074dec2d1009cf941dd507ae46892d515213f5993656da5b40
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,865
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,892
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,865 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 67c | 1,280$863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.94 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cf…8bcbbacked Yes | 33c | 770.34$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.24 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 56c | 310.99$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.72 | 1,117 | 46.2%516 W · 601 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b5…2d74backed Yes | 44c | 299.72$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 20c | 298.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.95 | 148 | 23%34 W · 114 L | -10.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Yes | 44c | 229.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 127 | 41.7%53 W · 74 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29d3…ccf6backed Yes | 45c | 227.38$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 56c | 226.63$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.41 | 934 | 46.1%431 W · 503 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 57c | 145.88$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.45 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Yes | 44c | 142.77$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.75 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5325…c31dbacked Yes | 44c | 122.18$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 55c | 115.23$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 1,110 | 49.5%549 W · 561 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e3…810cbacked Yes | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 28c | 107.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a7…5ac0backed Yes | 30c | 99.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed No | 63c | 72.28$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 69c | 71.16$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.21 | 324 | 57.1%185 W · 139 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd337…7564backed Yes | 34c | 52.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc115…9138backed Yes | 39c | 45.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e95…2bb7backed Yes | 44c | 44.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 423 | 51.3%217 W · 206 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 56c | 35.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa636…dfe9backed Yes | 44c | 32.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.18per pick | 60cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed Yes | 31c | 32.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 74c | 23.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…390dbacked No | 58c | 23.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Tōkyō Verdy: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Tōkyō Verdy: O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Tōkyō Verdy: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Tōkyō Verdy: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Tōkyō Verdy: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5)FC Mito Holly Hock won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.