Asian League · resolved market
FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Tōkyō Verdy: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38d36abac5244d8971cd50fdcaabc8354ee6701ab677d8cbd47d7c76f504e8c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,065
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,831
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,065 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Over | 32c | 3,264$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,049.59 | 243 | 23%56 W · 187 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 75c | 1,918$1,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.61 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7e…6d00backed Over | 20c | 1,500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 74c | 1,020$754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.9 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 67c | 819.98$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.81 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Under | 74c | 672.07$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.07 | 246 | 54.1%133 W · 113 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad7c…6244backed Over | 18c | 550$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 18c | 531.32$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.5 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 11c | 400$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 81 | 19.8%16 W · 65 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 34c | 347.59$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.18 | 218 | 30.7%67 W · 151 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Over | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.23 | 148 | 23%34 W · 114 L | -10.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc3…0670backed Over | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -9.6wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xebfd…cba6backed Over | 34c | 289.6$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.46 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Under | 67c | 223.88$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.88 | 127 | 41.7%53 W · 74 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 34c | 199.97$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.99 | 297 | 45.1%134 W · 163 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 226 | 42.5%96 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 74c | 135$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.82 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 69c | 109.37$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 340 | 50.9%173 W · 167 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c74…0d16backed Over | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Over | 22c | 95.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 257 | 42%108 W · 149 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f7…f399backed Under | 70c | 85.71$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 66c | 76.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Under | 71c | 66.53$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b2…92d6backed Over | 34c | 61.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 34c | 58.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 181 | 38.7%70 W · 111 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…50febacked Over | 36c | 53.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa52…eababacked Over | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -4.9wins | -0.30per pick | 49cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 71c | 41.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 304 | 64.8%197 W · 107 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe29c…a31dbacked Over | 30c | 40.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Over | 28c | 37.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…2473backed Over | 34c | 30.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Under | 75c | 29.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 75 | 74.7%56 W · 19 L | +13.6wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Under | 66c | 29.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7891…c020backed Under | 76c | 29.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7521…c083backed Under | 67c | 21.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae4…e4a2backed Under | 67c | 15.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…19e5backed Under | 67c | 15.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Under | 67c | 15.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Tōkyō Verdy: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Tōkyō Verdy: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Tōkyō Verdy: O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Tōkyō Verdy: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Tōkyō Verdy: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5)FC Mito Holly Hock won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.