Asian League · resolved market
FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Tōkyō Verdy: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ab3bb12f58bb2335b98f93f23d213c48ab4e6c602b4b0c0878b5887bc4006a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,739
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,151
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,739 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 56c | 4,441$2,488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,953.72 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7e…6d00backed Over | 34c | 2,932$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16e5…6373backed Over | 58c | 2,420$1,402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,402.2 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -5.4wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x70dc…1783backed Under | 56c | 939.49$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.66 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa5…e01bbacked Over | 39c | 641.03$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…1f51backed Over | 33c | 611.06$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 55c | 609.92$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.58 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc29…383bbacked Under | 51c | 601$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.9 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f76…aea6backed Under | 52c | 576.92$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.92 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 32c | 500$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 81 | 19.8%16 W · 65 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0271…156bbacked Over | 57c | 400$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3945…2ef2backed Under | 43c | 400$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 58c | 391.9$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.23 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 42c | 330.95$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 144 | 29.2%42 W · 102 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 226 | 42.5%96 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Over | 32c | 299.87$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.51 | 148 | 23%34 W · 114 L | -10.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0267…7f7ebacked Over | 50c | 233$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…6342backed Under | 56c | 215.06$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.06 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 41c | 208.13$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.33 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24a3…7c66backed Over | 35c | 207.01$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad3…d0d2backed Under | 41c | 204.88$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.88 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 63c | 199.94$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.96 | 297 | 45.1%134 W · 163 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa529…677ebacked Over | 63c | 175.51$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.57 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e4…d1f7backed Under | 61c | 163.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.74 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x984c…e508backed Over | 55c | 150$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…ea8fbacked Under | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b4…c6f0backed Over | 52c | 119.05$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 62c | 112.11$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.79 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x274b…d408backed Under | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.56 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebc…01c6backed Under | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d63…2e49backed Over | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +116%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed Under | 58c | 67.78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.26 | 64 | 65.6%42 W · 22 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…e6d8backed Over | 58c | 61.59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Over | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 55c | 52.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 186 | 46.2%86 W · 100 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9817…28bcbacked Over | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb94…6ef0backed Under | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89e9…c4a3backed Under | 78c | 36.3$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 26 | 76.9%20 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc986…1654backed Over | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 50c | 33.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 1,309 | 56.8%743 W · 566 L | +66.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e9…9886backed Over | 44c | 31.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked Over | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked Over | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1847…d94abacked Over | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf672…c3c4backed Over | 64c | 31.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa52…eababacked Over | 66c | 30.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -4.9wins | -0.30per pick | 49cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 70c | 25.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 282 | 53.5%151 W · 131 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Over | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 54c | 23.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 241 | 62.2%150 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 72c | 23.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Under | 63c | 21.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c9…a454backed Under | 63c | 21.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 62c | 20.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 304 | 64.8%197 W · 107 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Under | 60c | 19.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 75 | 74.7%56 W · 19 L | +13.6wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Tōkyō Verdy: O/U 1.5this page
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Tōkyō Verdy: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Tōkyō Verdy: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Tōkyō Verdy: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Tōkyō Verdy: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5)FC Mito Holly Hock won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.