MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1dbdc22a22549d6e8463bb6365c7c1a868362902084ebdfc7a0fa866f83b5f65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Yankeesof Tampa Bay Rays, New York Yankees
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,441
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,441 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Tampa Bay Rays | 1c | 3,780$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 1,442$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.25 | 408 | 46.1%188 W · 220 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…0876backed New York Yankees | 58c | 1,111$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.62 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4328…11d2backed New York Yankees | 59c | 322.41$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.77 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Tampa Bay Rays | 14c | 307.02$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.38 | 113 | 31.9%36 W · 77 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Tampa Bay Rays | 41c | 301.51$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.56 | 849 | 49.1%417 W · 432 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked New York Yankees | 58c | 240$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 507 | 51.7%262 W · 245 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3,303 | 46.3%1,528 W · 1,775 L | +22.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe9…9c50backed New York Yankees | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 81 | 59.3%48 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed New York Yankees | 61c | 131.17$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.17 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 129.79$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.62 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb691…b39dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 24c | 129.01$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed New York Yankees | 69c | 119.51$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.57 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 43c | 101.75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.75 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 832 | 48%399 W · 433 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e72…c55fbacked New York Yankees | 58c | 94.05$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed New York Yankees | 71c | 81$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed New York Yankees | 57c | 74$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55af…8407backed New York Yankees | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 55.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -23.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 41c | 41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 257 | 48.2%124 W · 133 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb84d…8b3abacked New York Yankees | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3af…2c0abacked New York Yankees | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 62cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…6906backed New York Yankees | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -5.4wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -29%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked New York Yankees | 60c | 26.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 1,203 | 48.5%584 W · 619 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…745dbacked New York Yankees | 57c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed New York Yankees | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked New York Yankees | 73c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 1,728 | 50.4%871 W · 857 L | +57.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.