NHL · resolved market
Spread: Capitals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1df8eb77a500f721dd41978b2beff190ba6436ac9e19945e6c116336ea7b50a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Capitalsof Capitals, Oilers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,255
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,249
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,255 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Capitals | 31c | 2,350$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,621.5 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdefe…5432backed Oilers | 69c | 2,340$1,615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,614.6 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x685d…22d6backed Oilers | 70c | 1,105$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$775.1 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Capitals | 31c | 967.74$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.74 | 236 | 53.8%127 W · 109 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a81…aa82backed Capitals | 31c | 914.81$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.91 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Oilers | 69c | 910$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.9 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Capitals | 30c | 499.7$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.21 | 533 | 37.5%200 W · 333 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Capitals | 30c | 349.05$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.4 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb3…b7febacked Oilers | 69c | 289.8$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Oilers | 68c | 150$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Capitals | 51c | 77.78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Capitals | 30c | 67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.9 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06eb…1a5fbacked Oilers | 71c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -5.4wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee1a…5a46backed Oilers | 70c | 56.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c26…1dddbacked Oilers | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fc…1dc7backed Oilers | 72c | 55.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 72cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…f95dbacked Oilers | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 33 | 78.8%26 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 69cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Capitals | 29c | 49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.79 | 232 | 49.1%114 W · 118 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Oilers | 36c | 47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 421 | 44.4%187 W · 234 L | -28.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb4…166ebacked Oilers | 72c | 45.83$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfd…0d00backed Oilers | 70c | 45.71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7087…85bfbacked Oilers | 70c | 45.71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6564…7246backed Oilers | 70c | 44.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b0…53c3backed Oilers | 70c | 44.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Oilers | 68c | 35.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 619 | 59.1%366 W · 253 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked Oilers | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 62 | 71%44 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…bdcdbacked Oilers | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e07…1f7ebacked Oilers | 63c | 16.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)this page
- Oilers vs. CapitalsCapitals won
- Oilers vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Oilers vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Oilers (-1.5)Capitals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.