Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: FK Shakhtar Donetsk (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e15c25dd2ea6af1757a4bfbb3b6db3d98fb727d4935540d6bcde5d2f6d5918b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FK Shakhtar Donetskof FK Shakhtar Donetsk, KKS Lech Poznań
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,863
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,902
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,863 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked FK Shakhtar Donetsk | 75c | 924.44$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.32 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed KKS Lech Poznań | 49c | 790.76$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.69 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed KKS Lech Poznań | 25c | 673.25$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.1 | 769 | 41.9%322 W · 447 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fc…0ef5backed FK Shakhtar Donetsk | 20c | 126.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.95 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed FK Shakhtar Donetsk | 74c | 122.84$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.94 | 149 | 63.1%94 W · 55 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e71…eb59backed FK Shakhtar Donetsk | 20c | 96.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +407.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed FK Shakhtar Donetsk | 16c | 63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.92 | 379 | 26.1%99 W · 280 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…a2b4backed FK Shakhtar Donetsk | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6404…2a20backed FK Shakhtar Donetsk | 74c | 20.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -9.3wins | -0.26per pick | 42cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: FK Shakhtar Donetsk (-1.5)this page
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: O/U 1.5Over won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: O/U 2.5Over won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: O/U 3.5Over won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.