Europa Conference League · resolved market
KKS Lech Poznań vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6c99b62cba1aadb9b2ccc668123474cc4e0fce3bdd48dd36ebb15d80ba16c99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,324
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,324 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 45c | 1,017$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.45 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 50c | 816.22$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.22 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Under | 39c | 767.32$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.32 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 63c | 733.65$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.69 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x739a…f78abacked Over | 49c | 638.95$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4306…618abacked Over | 51c | 582.74$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.74 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 40c | 443.45$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.33 | 218 | 35.8%78 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 25c | 433.55$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.49 | 769 | 41.9%322 W · 447 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 49c | 418.65$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.5 | 382 | 47.1%180 W · 202 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Over | 44c | 391.35$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.16 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 305.02$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.66 | 449 | 52.6%236 W · 213 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0189…cab8backed Over | 51c | 220$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.8 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 52c | 173.08$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.08 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…5a8abacked Under | 51c | 162.41$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb0…c9f8backed Under | 51c | 162.14$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…e589backed Under | 51c | 159.73$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3a…4d28backed Under | 51c | 155.52$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7e…c230backed Over | 51c | 151.69$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.69 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0f…b652backed Under | 25c | 115.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca7…0c48backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 239 | 49.4%118 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a94…769cbacked Over | 52c | 97.02$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.02 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 74c | 75.3$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 149 | 63.1%94 W · 55 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7409…65a6backed Over | 79c | 75.16$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 147 | 67.3%99 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…a2b4backed Over | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35b8…898abacked Over | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5544backed Under | 48c | 52.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fb…ec4fbacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f2…2512backed Over | 45c | 43.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca1…57e4backed Over | 50c | 37.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Under | 49c | 37.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99ec…363ebacked Over | 50c | 32.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6394…9749backed Over | 51c | 31.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 178 | 35.4%63 W · 115 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 48c | 29.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32c0…b3c4backed Under | 52c | 29.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 48c | 27.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f55…0930backed Under | 52c | 22.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc252…0aebbacked Over | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 51c | 20.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 638 | 57.2%365 W · 273 L | +35.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -3.1wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d1…4cb7backed Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b82…7f3cbacked Over | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef1f…3df5backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedb…5e54backed Under | 57c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 179 | 58.1%104 W · 75 L | +17.0wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: O/U 2.5this page
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: O/U 1.5Over won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: O/U 3.5Over won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FK Shakhtar Donetsk (-1.5)FK Shakhtar Donetsk won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.