Lol · resolved market
LoL: Aeterna Esports vs Colossal Gaming - Game 4 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e21a64166fd5312d934a6bb255e215a6af55550e1af4bc37a29cdb15a056665
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Colossal Gamingof Aeterna Esports, Colossal Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $766
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $766
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $766 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf163…ca34backed Colossal Gaming | 50c | 301.69$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.84 | 1,492 | 48.4%722 W · 770 L | +47.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Aeterna Esports | 32c | 185$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.62 | 1,348 | 47.3%637 W · 711 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Aeterna Esports | 38c | 150$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.38 | 1,091 | 47.4%517 W · 574 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58f8…dc70backed Colossal Gaming | 74c | 83.82$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 409 | 70.2%287 W · 122 L | +30.9wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfad…fa05backed Aeterna Esports | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,223 | 58.1%710 W · 513 L | +43.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2d…b69dbacked Aeterna Esports | 50c | 55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Colossal Gaming | 69c | 47.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 610 | 42.5%259 W · 351 L | -52.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x050c…bf27backed Aeterna Esports | 50c | 38.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 188 | 48.9%92 W · 96 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37ca…f644backed Aeterna Esports | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 248 | 58.1%144 W · 104 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6428…c83abacked Colossal Gaming | 69c | 15.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb47…4737backed Colossal Gaming | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 88 | 76.1%67 W · 21 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x395a…eb72backed Colossal Gaming | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 48 | 70.8%34 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LoL: Aeterna Esports vs Colossal Gaming - Game 4 Winnerthis page
- LoL: Aeterna Esports vs Colossal Gaming (BO5) - LIT PlayoffsColossal Gaming won
- LoL: Aeterna Esports vs Colossal Gaming - Game 1 WinnerAeterna Esports won
- LoL: Aeterna Esports vs Colossal Gaming - Game 2 WinnerColossal Gaming won
- LoL: Aeterna Esports vs Colossal Gaming - Game 3 WinnerColossal Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.