Tennis · resolved market
Austin: Lucrezia Stefanini vs Sinja Kraus
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e247fca20f3bdd3f9107f0278d95731e3416b94747c3f78c60ba87e42848373
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sinja Krausof Lucrezia Stefanini, Sinja Kraus
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,081
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,081 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3cfb…0628backed Lucrezia Stefanini | 42c | 2,723$1,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140.95 | 302 | 41.7%126 W · 176 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Sinja Kraus | 57c | 1,492$848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.24 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Sinja Kraus | 62c | 1,134$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.08 | 2,153 | 54.1%1,165 W · 988 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Sinja Kraus | 50c | 1,130$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.44 | 1,981 | 46.2%916 W · 1,065 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Lucrezia Stefanini | 49c | 736.48$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.87 | 810 | 47.9%388 W · 422 L | +30.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Lucrezia Stefanini | 24c | 709.63$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.41 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Sinja Kraus | 51c | 588.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.24 | 271 | 54.2%147 W · 124 L | +20.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +17%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Sinja Kraus | 59c | 496.81$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.41 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Lucrezia Stefanini | 6c | 496$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 1,410 | 38.4%542 W · 868 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…b5fdbacked Lucrezia Stefanini | 50c | 401.5$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda74…1ab0backed Lucrezia Stefanini | 49c | 306.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 945 | 49.6%469 W · 476 L | -23.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Lucrezia Stefanini | 38c | 267.91$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.11 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Lucrezia Stefanini | 29c | 240.47$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.85 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Lucrezia Stefanini | 27c | 240$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.72 | 3,901 | 50.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Sinja Kraus | 57c | 229.27$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.61 | 9,406 | 44.3%4,171 W · 5,235 L | -245.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Lucrezia Stefanini | 47c | 224.86$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.97 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Sinja Kraus | 56c | 222.14$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.6 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…e826backed Lucrezia Stefanini | 55c | 215.31$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 693 | 50.5%350 W · 343 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a5…f64abacked Lucrezia Stefanini | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 849 | 63.1%536 W · 313 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe766…404dbacked Sinja Kraus | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Lucrezia Stefanini | 47c | 176.82$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.11 | 11,779 | 43.3%5,102 W · 6,677 L | +20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Sinja Kraus | 54c | 171.45$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.21 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Sinja Kraus | 50c | 131$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.29 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Lucrezia Stefanini | 23c | 126.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Sinja Kraus | 68c | 124.16$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.16 | 537 | 52.3%281 W · 256 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e57…b822backed Lucrezia Stefanini | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd5…11bbbacked Sinja Kraus | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 121 | 42.1%51 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…98f1backed Sinja Kraus | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Sinja Kraus | 72c | 105.11$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.13 | 381 | 47%179 W · 202 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Lucrezia Stefanini | 12c | 100.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 275 | 46.5%128 W · 147 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Lucrezia Stefanini | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7108…a418backed Sinja Kraus | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaffe…7140backed Lucrezia Stefanini | 49c | 71.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 433 | 42.5%184 W · 249 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Lucrezia Stefanini | 49c | 64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 1,832 | 53%971 W · 861 L | -45.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3578…f163backed Lucrezia Stefanini | 53c | 62.46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 398 | 72.4%288 W · 110 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Sinja Kraus | 78c | 57.23$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 8,057 | 50.8%4,089 W · 3,968 L | +90.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b9…948abacked Sinja Kraus | 75c | 57.05$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 423 | 58.6%248 W · 175 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Lucrezia Stefanini | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,266 | 34.2%433 W · 833 L | -43.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Sinja Kraus | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 363 | 49.9%181 W · 182 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Sinja Kraus | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 7,201 | 49.7%3,577 W · 3,624 L | +114.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Lucrezia Stefanini | 47c | 48.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4820…bc0fbacked Lucrezia Stefanini | 41c | 38.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Lucrezia Stefanini | 45c | 35.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 6,867 | 48.9%3,357 W · 3,510 L | +61.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Lucrezia Stefanini | 36c | 30.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 363 | 33.9%123 W · 240 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Sinja Kraus | 76c | 30.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ea…2aacbacked Sinja Kraus | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 72 | 61.1%44 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Sinja Kraus | 51c | 22.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 153 | 53.6%82 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca6…3841backed Sinja Kraus | 75c | 20.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…29b4backed Sinja Kraus | 61c | 16.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.