NFL · resolved market
Giants vs. Lions
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e4cc8b71d164b61c11a01e20050cc89a4a614a24c1091c14aa9adc05896b05c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Giantsof Giants, Lions
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,900
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,076
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,900 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Lions | 1c | 5,255$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.65 | 324 | 38%123 W · 201 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6126…6411backed Giants | 64c | 4,746$3,059 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,686.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a12…01cebacked Giants | 45c | 4,276$1,937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,339.18 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacf7…a694backed Lions | 55c | 4,243$2,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,334.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Lions | 36c | 2,407$867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$866.52 | 251 | 37.5%94 W · 157 L | -18.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Lions | 35c | 1,012$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.26 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Giants | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Lions | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93c8…bbb7backed Lions | 35c | 677.14$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 30cpaid | +105.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Lions | 36c | 600$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Lions | 36c | 500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 186 | 45.7%85 W · 101 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked Lions | 36c | 500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 142 | 48.6%69 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce84…304cbacked Lions | 36c | 254.59$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.43 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea04…b8c2backed Lions | 41c | 195.12$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7d…197cbacked Giants | 59c | 195.12$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +141%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed Giants | 61c | 177.85$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.36 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0416…9b31backed Lions | 36c | 138.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.76 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2852…2d6cbacked Lions | 15c | 113.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…6501backed Lions | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160f…524bbacked Giants | 68c | 88.41$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.43 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Giants | 46c | 71.28$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4124…fe54backed Lions | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07ed…4d6abacked Lions | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8371…06febacked Lions | 35c | 52.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9b…c130backed Giants | 65c | 52.62$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x542c…f12bbacked Lions | 39c | 50.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2efc…5686backed Lions | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5f…7a25backed Lions | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.