Northern Colorado Bears vs. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e62330fb21d405b09496e2989e23f012a92e0ea3a3193be582bfa6d045d5a89

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Northern Arizona Lumberjacksof Northern Colorado Bears, Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
Resolved: Jan 25, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $7,854
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $9,015

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,854 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x507e…beaebacked Northern Colorado Bears	51c	1,017$523 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$522.8	5,946	49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L	+163.0wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks	60c	958.04$575 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$383.2	1,887	45.2%853 W · 1,034 L	+6.5wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0370…d000backed Northern Colorado Bears	62c	516.4$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320.17	940	36.9%347 W · 593 L	+8.6wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00e0…8a94backed Northern Colorado Bears	18c	500$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	230	28.3%65 W · 165 L	-4.5wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a8e…b505backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks	43c	467.84$203 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$264.39	480	51%245 W · 235 L	-6.8wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c9e…bba8backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks	39c	358$141 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$217.4	146	43.2%63 W · 83 L	-3.9wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc091…3d42backed Northern Colorado Bears	59c	353$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$209.64	722	48.8%352 W · 370 L	-23.6wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Northern Colorado Bears	5c	271$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.54	2,254	42.2%951 W · 1,303 L	+3.4wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x13c9…5e53backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks	34c	200$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$132	111	36%40 W · 71 L	-4.5wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks	45c	200$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110	441	46.5%205 W · 236 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19a0…ac39backed Northern Colorado Bears	68c	195.54$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.41	186	54.3%101 W · 85 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70c8…006cbacked Northern Colorado Bears	58c	146.55$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85	140	62.9%88 W · 52 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	61cpaid	+1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Northern Colorado Bears	16c	137.68$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.32	1,540	41.3%636 W · 904 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Northern Colorado Bears	22c	101.74$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.88	3,380	49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L	+30.4wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9121…bd6cbacked Northern Colorado Bears	60c	100$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	61	36.1%22 W · 39 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ed1…caa2backed Northern Colorado Bears	29c	86.9$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	253	25.3%64 W · 189 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5f8…ac7bbacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks	34c	63.68$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.83	15	40%6 W · 9 L	+1.8wins	+0.12per pick	28cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x31ad…8b71backed Northern Colorado Bears	72c	62.5$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	89	40.4%36 W · 53 L	-8.1wins	-0.09per pick	50cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Northern Colorado Bears	70c	59.67$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.77	4,552	50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L	-36.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0605…f941backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks	28c	58.79$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.33	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.15per pick	35cpaid	+58.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97c3…b479backed Northern Colorado Bears	38c	50$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	128	40.6%52 W · 76 L	-11.4wins	-0.09per pick	50cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks	68c	45.43$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.57	3,905	58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L	+165.3wins	+0.04per pick	55cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb1cb…fb77backed Northern Colorado Bears	52c	22.96$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.96	102	52%53 W · 49 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Northern Colorado Bears vs. Northern Arizona Lumberjacksthis page
Northern Colorado Bears vs. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks: O/U 148.5Over won
Northern Colorado Bears vs. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks: O/U 149.5Over won
Spread: Northern Colorado Bears (-5.5)Northern Arizona Lumberjacks won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Northern Colorado Bears vs. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event