Bundesliga · resolved market
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e7382e1d801d7ce297ff0f1baf5d1644e00b6a78d3dfd26654fe20874c5f749
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,373
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,136
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,373 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb6b…b0b9backed Under | 78c | 1,592$1,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.96 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdf…56f5backed Over | 43c | 1,157$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 26c | 820.7$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.43 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 77c | 793.16$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.44 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 22c | 296.83$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.53 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…d084backed Under | 74c | 134.66$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.66 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 25c | 123.05$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Over | 20c | 118$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 17c | 90$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 18c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 91 | 23.1%21 W · 70 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 38c | 78.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 118 | 57.6%68 W · 50 L | +15.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 20c | 61.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 28c | 43.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Under | 74c | 32.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 4.5this page
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 1.5Over won
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 2.5Over won
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.