Bundesliga · resolved market
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5bd468374e0169ac94794c38c91d76f4dd3d24086d562510a0075d6933506eff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $377,075
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $382,574
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $377,075 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Under | 48c | 246,371$118,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118,619.79 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -5.1wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfd29…77aebacked Over | 53c | 140,000$73,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66,399.96 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 51c | 71,087$36,254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,832.72 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 54c | 22,826$12,219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,606.96 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…9ce7backed Over | 51c | 20,000$10,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,800 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea2b…1fc6backed Under | 47c | 20,000$9,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,400 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 53c | 11,599$6,148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,450.53 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 52c | 9,529$4,997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,531.76 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 48c | 8,207$3,939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,939.37 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 55c | 7,683$4,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,488.19 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a73…1660backed Over | 54c | 7,442$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,442.35 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Over | 51c | 7,159$3,651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,507.93 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777d…5143backed Under | 49c | 6,000$2,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,940 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdf…56f5backed Under | 18c | 1,082$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Over | 57c | 880$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.4 | 128 | 61.7%79 W · 49 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Over | 52c | 800$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 36c | 800$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…f5ecbacked Under | 49c | 753.63$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.09 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 48c | 637.04$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.04 | 168 | 50%84 W · 84 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 55c | 616.42$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.42 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Over | 54c | 584.09$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.5 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x999b…838fbacked Under | 28c | 544.61$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked Over | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc208…e74fbacked Under | 47c | 429.71$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Over | 54c | 322.3$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.26 | 109 | 43.1%47 W · 62 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.46 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e0…3c1ebacked Over | 55c | 263.48$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 59cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc385…8eb0backed Over | 79c | 253.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 62c | 228.34$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.27 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 52c | 204.6$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.41 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd265…a7ecbacked Under | 48c | 197.21$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.66 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Under | 44c | 179.99$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Over | 55c | 151.73$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.75 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee1…268bbacked Under | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa1…b0fbbacked Under | 18c | 102.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6e…a573backed Under | 18c | 102.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1e…e503backed Under | 45c | 91.94$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.37 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 120 | 69.2%83 W · 37 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…e589backed Under | 45c | 87.52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3a…4d28backed Under | 45c | 84.02$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.81 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 61c | 68.68$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc3…1e73backed Over | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…e779backed Over | 58c | 55.13$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd430…78b8backed Under | 33c | 54.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 44c | 52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 52c | 51.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c2…63f7backed Under | 49c | 51.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0685…2b0cbacked Under | 36c | 49.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 56c | 48.21$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…8147backed Under | 41c | 44.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -4.3wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f6…f8bbbacked Under | 48c | 41.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e08…19cabacked Over | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Over | 55c | 38.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3e…d808backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x546e…ec0cbacked Over | 54c | 36.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 205 | 40%82 W · 123 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 43c | 32.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9b…2be5backed Over | 54c | 30.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…0a4abacked Over | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52ca…54f0backed Over | 67c | 25.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Over | 52c | 23.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 55c | 21.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 77 | 66.2%51 W · 26 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb03…ddcebacked Over | 54c | 20.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6c…a67dbacked Over | 54c | 18.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb089…a271backed Over | 57c | 17.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 2.5this page
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 1.5Over won
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 3.5Under won
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.