Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Valparaiso Beacons (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e7712cc754f249b57f57710f75337690c1de37c9a4fdc1d255112a7adf13335
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Indiana State Sycamoresof Valparaiso Beacons, Indiana State Sycamores
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,989
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,989 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed Valparaiso Beacons | 52c | 2,500$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,299.99 | 616 | 52.8%325 W · 291 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Indiana State Sycamores | 48c | 1,937$930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,007.29 | 407 | 55.8%227 W · 180 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Indiana State Sycamores | 48c | 1,134$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.9 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Valparaiso Beacons | 53c | 1,088$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.64 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Indiana State Sycamores | 48c | 416.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.49 | 195 | 54.9%107 W · 88 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f49…fec0backed Valparaiso Beacons | 41c | 261.48$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.22 | 249 | 51.8%129 W · 120 L | +19.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Indiana State Sycamores | 47c | 256.74$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.07 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e7…884cbacked Valparaiso Beacons | 50c | 226.19$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.1 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Indiana State Sycamores | 48c | 122.92$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.92 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Indiana State Sycamores | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…e4bebacked Valparaiso Beacons | 52c | 99.13$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.55 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Indiana State Sycamores | 46c | 85.19$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Indiana State Sycamores | 64c | 77.71$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.22 | 848 | 54.5%462 W · 386 L | +32.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d75…12a6backed Indiana State Sycamores | 48c | 77.49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.29 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +5.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Valparaiso Beacons | 50c | 76.25$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.12 | 621 | 40.4%251 W · 370 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Valparaiso Beacons | 50c | 70.52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.08 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc0…8f18backed Indiana State Sycamores | 48c | 70.38$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Valparaiso Beacons | 54c | 44.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 922 | 46%424 W · 498 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Valparaiso Beacons | 54c | 39.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 627 | 53%332 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…48fdbacked Indiana State Sycamores | 48c | 34.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Valparaiso Beacons | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 349 | 52.1%182 W · 167 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Indiana State Sycamores | 48c | 29.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 609 | 54.5%332 W · 277 L | +15.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97c7…dddfbacked Indiana State Sycamores | 48c | 25.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Indiana State Sycamores | 54c | 20.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Valparaiso Beacons (-2.5)this page
- Indiana State Sycamores vs. Valparaiso BeaconsValparaiso Beacons won
- Indiana State Sycamores vs. Valparaiso Beacons: O/U 135.5Under won
- Indiana State Sycamores vs. Valparaiso Beacons: O/U 136.5Under won
- Indiana State Sycamores vs. Valparaiso Beacons: O/U 138.5Under won
- Spread: Valparaiso Beacons (-3.5)Indiana State Sycamores won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.