Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Hertha BSC vs. 1. FC Nürnberg end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1eae3ce3797ec1bac5a7f898208e899800f56b99f53812f548ee141852e51a90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,690
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,795
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,690 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 72c | 3,324$2,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$936.11 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc01b…7718backed Yes | 47c | 2,848$1,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,335.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked Yes | 21c | 2,500$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 54c | 1,700$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.87 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8544…3d33backed Yes | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…90f8backed Yes | 32c | 356.84$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 61c | 217.9$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.19 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 17c | 202.41$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.41 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6391…bc1cbacked Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 28c | 150$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 53c | 143.09$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.36 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 72c | 110.2$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.48 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd257…d215backed Yes | 24c | 102.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 85 | 17.6%15 W · 70 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x639f…6b8dbacked No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Yes | 20c | 93.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 143 | 15.4%22 W · 121 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 71c | 92.51$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.68 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 53c | 90.2$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.39 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6479…5e64backed Yes | 68c | 84.68$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.34 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e5c…7b2bbacked No | 66c | 82.55$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.07 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 74c | 80.77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fb…74f3backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc59f…f632backed No | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 26c | 66.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…19c5backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00e6…41a5backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 50c | 44.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 35c | 44.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41ad…8dddbacked No | 33c | 41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 73c | 38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…04b5backed No | 29c | 34.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.69 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +84.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf1…a57bbacked No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 50c | 25.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 149 | 34.9%52 W · 97 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd836…77f3backed Yes | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 69c | 19.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 73c | 15.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e3…4bd5backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hertha BSC vs. 1. FC Nürnberg end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-03-01?No won
- Will Hertha BSC win on 2026-03-01?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.