Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs REKONIX (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group A
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f178600119ee1c0757dbde0aca69cc926b52005d6752fb66e89cfe2aa39d731
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tundra Esportsof Tundra Esports, REKONIX
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,951
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,951 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7951…bb41backed REKONIX | 5c | 6,009$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.19 | 647 | 44.4%287 W · 360 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked REKONIX | 19c | 534.75$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.55 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed REKONIX | 11c | 423.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.68 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed REKONIX | 16c | 318.52$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.96 | 568 | 52.5%298 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked REKONIX | 15c | 199.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -7.3wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac2…e183backed Tundra Esports | 80c | 187.78$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.78 | 249 | 55.4%138 W · 111 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ec…6ce1backed REKONIX | 12c | 169.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 22cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked REKONIX | 11c | 166.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb2…0b31backed REKONIX | 21c | 118.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdae3…cf78backed REKONIX | 20c | 102.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.23per pick | 35cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcda6…3f07backed Tundra Esports | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86df…7d27backed Tundra Esports | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc76e…caa5backed Tundra Esports | 79c | 78.43$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed REKONIX | 16c | 66.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 229 | 45.9%105 W · 124 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6c…0c81backed Tundra Esports | 80c | 62.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed REKONIX | 19c | 56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked REKONIX | 21c | 50.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 358 | 50.6%181 W · 177 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00f7…4476backed REKONIX | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff7f…bb30backed Tundra Esports | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0900…2d68backed Tundra Esports | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c06…bbeebacked Tundra Esports | 78c | 20.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3999…c2bbbacked Tundra Esports | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd3…36e6backed Tundra Esports | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf219…47e9backed Tundra Esports | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs REKONIX (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group Athis page
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs REKONIX - Game 1 WinnerTundra Esports won
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs REKONIX - Game 2 WinnerTundra Esports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.