Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3840807223e74b4acf9b5a0ea7d25d2094703a335aa330134f145fa002d70f4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tundra Esportsof Tundra Esports, REKONIX
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,852
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,852 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x18bb…e5cdbacked REKONIX | 16c | 9,159$1,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,469.54 | 130 | 20%26 W · 104 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked REKONIX | 13c | 1,816$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.09 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae8…c2a8backed REKONIX | 15c | 1,290$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.5 | 130 | 45.4%59 W · 71 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked REKONIX | 13c | 1,270$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.08 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31b5…6128backed REKONIX | 14c | 899.92$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.99 | 180 | 75%135 W · 45 L | +18.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked REKONIX | 14c | 794.1$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.93 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed REKONIX | 13c | 772$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.24 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc667…e68dbacked REKONIX | 16c | 709.09$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed REKONIX | 15c | 676.48$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.32 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1034…b26dbacked REKONIX | 9c | 479.37$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed REKONIX | 18c | 474.55$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.47 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf16…9c6fbacked REKONIX | 16c | 437.73$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.98 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed REKONIX | 18c | 412.07$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.98 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb64c…393dbacked REKONIX | 5c | 374.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 293 | 50.2%147 W · 146 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7627…4404backed REKONIX | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed REKONIX | 18c | 222.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 336 | 45.5%153 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked REKONIX | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 920 | 56.4%519 W · 401 L | +78.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked REKONIX | 18c | 172.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed REKONIX | 15c | 157.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 565 | 48%271 W · 294 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked REKONIX | 14c | 156.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae1…c891backed REKONIX | 16c | 119.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 335 | 49.9%167 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5410…dcc7backed REKONIX | 21c | 90.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed REKONIX | 18c | 89.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked REKONIX | 15c | 88.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed REKONIX | 18c | 85.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 576 | 54.5%314 W · 262 L | +29.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8057…b7f1backed REKONIX | 15c | 77.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs REKONIX (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group ATundra Esports won
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs REKONIX - Game 1 WinnerTundra Esports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.