Mls · resolved market
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-04-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f1f36b8df81f4da1790f414f9b2c524bbbd17f4f2a1a044bd92d13ed3f6132f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,600
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,595
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,600 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 23c | 2,999$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.54 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 78c | 761.75$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.68 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…0a8dbacked No | 24c | 499.97$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.19 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +110.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 76c | 408.22$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.03 | 236 | 43.6%103 W · 133 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 77c | 369.56$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.5 | 413 | 39%161 W · 252 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 24c | 333.13$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.01 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…f73fbacked No | 24c | 250$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 24c | 163$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe720…0f1cbacked Yes | 75c | 133.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.31 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 13c | 129.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35ac…0c64backed No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dcc…c9a8backed Yes | 76c | 122.97$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.51 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 77cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 26c | 111.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 89 | 19.1%17 W · 72 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 23c | 102.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabe5…d99abacked Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 24c | 88.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca6…77dfbacked Yes | 74c | 81.08$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed No | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2045…c77cbacked Yes | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9a8abacked Yes | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed No | 26c | 66.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…a236backed Yes | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc866…8c6dbacked Yes | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +4.0wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d87…8dbbbacked Yes | 77c | 56$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe136…b79fbacked No | 26c | 54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -48%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…3733backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked No | 24c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe10f…c59fbacked Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 77cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1be5…9d53backed Yes | 76c | 26.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b7…fefdbacked Yes | 77c | 26.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 69cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae86…a294backed Yes | 77c | 25.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 355 | 50.4%179 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Yes | 77c | 23.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed Yes | 75c | 20.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdda5…830dbacked Yes | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-04-04?this page
- Will Los Angeles FC vs. Orlando City SC end in a draw?No won
- Will Orlando City SC win on 2026-04-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.