Fifa International · resolved market
Spread: Montenegro (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f231f96e54706ac63b2a9dd802ec395514b2497b21b380a4ecade333ddf8182
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Montenegroof Montenegro, Andorra
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,810
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,665
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,810 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb49…1fbebacked Montenegro | 50c | 1,356$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Montenegro | 51c | 1,182$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.39 | 142 | 46.5%66 W · 76 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Andorra | 49c | 1,060$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.71 | 368 | 50.3%185 W · 183 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Andorra | 50c | 477.54$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.82 | 1,560 | 43.8%684 W · 876 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Andorra | 50c | 265.56$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.78 | 465 | 36.1%168 W · 297 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Andorra | 51c | 249$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.53 | 1,688 | 54.4%918 W · 770 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Andorra | 49c | 247$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.03 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Andorra | 49c | 211.42$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.8 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked Andorra | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…31f3backed Montenegro | 50c | 188.52$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.52 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0e…b0babacked Andorra | 51c | 118$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.18 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Andorra | 51c | 112.82$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.17 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Andorra | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63c5…1ecbbacked Montenegro | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.1 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54d5…77d4backed Montenegro | 50c | 99.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.61 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +8.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Montenegro | 45c | 88.58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.36 | 246 | 54.1%133 W · 113 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Andorra | 51c | 78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Andorra | 50c | 72.57$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.28 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…1973backed Montenegro | 49c | 71.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.43 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed Andorra | 51c | 59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…745dbacked Andorra | 51c | 59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf02…3a63backed Andorra | 51c | 59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Andorra | 48c | 55.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked Montenegro | 49c | 50.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa16…b066backed Andorra | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5b…b58bbacked Andorra | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Montenegro | 45c | 37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1872…bcabbacked Montenegro | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e1…6579backed Andorra | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Montenegro | 50c | 26.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 92 | 30.4%28 W · 64 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x848f…612fbacked Montenegro | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 93 | 58.1%54 W · 39 L | +11.6wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Montenegro (-1.5)this page
- Montenegro vs. Andorra: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Montenegro vs. Andorra: O/U 1.5Over won
- Montenegro vs. Andorra: O/U 2.5Under won
- Montenegro vs. Andorra: O/U 3.5Under won
- Montenegro vs. Andorra: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Montenegro (-2.5)Andorra won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.