Olympics · resolved market
Will Zhongyan Ning (CHN) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Men's 1500m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f3757f6a176858cb8c1459ade5c0c7ffaf63eacb42a88855ca7cf5142066d5e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,765
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,668
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,765 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x49d7…fbd7backed No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3db7…8f9fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,900$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,859.91 | 69 | 23.2%16 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0b…17c3backed No | 8c | 1,175$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.25 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 64c | 390$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.3 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 8c | 169.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 31c | 92.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcbb…cca6backed Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.59 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +167%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2b…c626backed Yes | 67c | 43.27$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…517cbacked Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e34…63f7backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 37c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Zhongyan Ning (CHN) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Men's 1500m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?this page
- Will Finn Sonnekalb (GER) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Men's 1500m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Joep Wennemars (NED) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Men's 1500m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Jordan Stolz (USA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Men's 1500m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Kjeld Nuis (NED) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Men's 1500m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Min-Seok Kim (HUN) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Men's 1500m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.