TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Olympics · resolved market

Will Jordan Stolz (USA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Men's 1500m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,639
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,361

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,639 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Olympics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5c0b…17c3backed Yes5c2,500$119 inLost-$119238.7%2 W · 21 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick5cpaid-10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d63…2cbfbacked Yes67c2,200$1,480 inLost-$1,479.99742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-43%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x359f…fa80backed Yes4c1,800$66 inLost-$66427.1%3 W · 39 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f07…2036backed No12c1,304$153 inWon+$1,150.561233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+34.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked No50c1,014$507 inWon+$507.151442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+22.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3db7…8f9fbacked Yes74c965.27$716 inLost-$715.646923.2%16 W · 53 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+46.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa900…3805backed No10c620$62 inWon+$5581631.3%5 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+49.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa7f…8a58backed No53c510.72$269 inWon+$241.721631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-42.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No12c341.15$42 inWon+$299.6511858.5%69 W · 49 L+6.9wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7436…0ac4backed No12c232.31$28 inWon+$204.31650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+131.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad9d…f2cdbacked Yes50c199.99$100 inLost-$1002142.9%9 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+22.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed No79c178.21$141 inWon+$37.248237.8%31 W · 51 L-6.7wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-26%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbcbb…cca6backed No12c137.5$17 inWon+$121560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick35cpaid+167%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No24c135.52$33 inWon+$102.395151%26 W · 25 L-0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf244…beddbacked Yes77c129.77$100 inLost-$100366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick66cpaid+13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No12c111.16$13 inWon+$97.822448.2%20 W · 224 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-61.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e34…63f7backed No30c100$30 inWon+$701250%6 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+16.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x118a…eca5backed No10c100$10 inWon+$90250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick6cpaid+400%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6884…517cbacked No28c99.98$28 inWon+$71.994746.8%22 W · 25 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc4d…f0b8backed Yes76c68.3$52 inLost-$51.913324.2%8 W · 25 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-46.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36bf…2864backed Yes37c60$22 inLost-$224235.7%15 W · 27 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-18.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ae3…4dd4backed No30c34$10 inWon+$23.81735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-24.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed No48c25.63$12 inWon+$13.334228.6%12 W · 30 L-5.3wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-46.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xaeed…074bbacked Yes71c22.17$16 inLost-$15.742343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-27%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf66…e823backed Yes72c16.57$12 inLost-$11.931241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked Yes68c16.1$11 inLost-$10.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.