Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C or below on February 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f3b6945b696b975f6b90db96b66b10137648545ae0daede273d019d29719ec4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,162
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,530
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,162 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd833…ba96backed No | 2c | 10,167$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.96 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 10c | 1,129$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.14 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ef…c9bcbacked No | 22c | 872.85$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.61 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 5c | 656.08$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…a612backed No | 53c | 293.96$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.99 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -9.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x610c…998fbacked Yes | 65c | 214.93$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.93 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed No | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c1…675ebacked Yes | 53c | 153.65$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.93 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 46c | 125.12$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.07 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…bd82backed Yes | 13c | 121.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.19 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 31c | 102.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.07 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 92.87$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 16c | 91.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…0fa8backed Yes | 52c | 67.17$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +91.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 37c | 65.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa809…ad85backed Yes | 50c | 58.28$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.14 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9736…64b8backed No | 37c | 43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Yes | 74c | 40.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02bd…3c32backed Yes | 34c | 40.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1b…032cbacked Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33fe…da25backed No | 46c | 39.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…afb2backed No | 35c | 38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x399e…6e5dbacked No | 73c | 36.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d71…1ee3backed Yes | 42c | 35.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…7014backed No | 73c | 34.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed No | 54c | 33.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e7…b163backed Yes | 76c | 30.42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b56…6431backed No | 68c | 25.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.22per pick | 63cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x409d…7789backed Yes | 59c | 25.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 67c | 23.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa449…9741backed No | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 72c | 20.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 56c | 19.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 62c | 17.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbe…e1d8backed No | 72c | 14.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C or below on February 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 32°C on February 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 33°C on February 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 34°C on February 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 35°C on February 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 36°C on February 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 37°C or higher on February 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.