Tennis · resolved market
ITF M15 Cap d'Agde Men: Matis Roche vs Octave Pujo
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f3d88adcc6eff3a0632452861e1cfb0c76a6bb43423723e39e90f5d2bb19bfb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Matis Rocheof Matis Roche, Octave Pujo
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,262
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,879
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,262 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc357…3684backed Matis Roche | 78c | 608.08$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.08 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Octave Pujo | 11c | 534.04$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.17 | 4,882 | 38.8%1,892 W · 2,990 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Octave Pujo | 29c | 444.25$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.92 | 11,325 | 43.4%4,912 W · 6,413 L | +18.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42e8…14ffbacked Octave Pujo | 27c | 396.3$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Matis Roche | 66c | 282.19$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.25 | 3,631 | 54.9%1,995 W · 1,636 L | +110.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Matis Roche | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 1,406 | 45.3%637 W · 769 L | +43.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Octave Pujo | 22c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 1,252 | 38.8%486 W · 766 L | -23.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Octave Pujo | 32c | 79.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 8,396 | 42.6%3,578 W · 4,818 L | -162.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5974…5c32backed Matis Roche | 69c | 78.26$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.26 | 443 | 65.9%292 W · 151 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Matis Roche | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 597 | 38.2%228 W · 369 L | -27.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5513…de2abacked Matis Roche | 61c | 30.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 737 | 38.8%286 W · 451 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5803…3f3fbacked Matis Roche | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 792 | 49.1%389 W · 403 L | +35.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Matis Roche | 55c | 18.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 576 | 45.7%263 W · 313 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Matis Roche | 57c | 17.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 625 | 49.6%310 W · 315 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.