Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: UMBC Retrievers (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f4b7a26fc792e9a27a1e258c413482ca36771e4678bbcd24a91965b17aad013
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Maine Black Bearsof UMBC Retrievers, Maine Black Bears
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,734
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,713
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,734 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed UMBC Retrievers | 49c | 733.78$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.55 | 222 | 50.9%113 W · 109 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Maine Black Bears | 51c | 531.82$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.59 | 898 | 50%449 W · 449 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Maine Black Bears | 56c | 341.22$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.32 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Maine Black Bears | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 1,070 | 46.9%502 W · 568 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked UMBC Retrievers | 43c | 167$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.81 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked UMBC Retrievers | 45c | 124$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.54 | 1,124 | 46.4%521 W · 603 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked UMBC Retrievers | 50c | 113$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked UMBC Retrievers | 44c | 81.16$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.71 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x676e…79b6backed UMBC Retrievers | 44c | 76.35$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Maine Black Bears | 27c | 41.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.96 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bd…8deabacked Maine Black Bears | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Maine Black Bears | 57c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b3…0d89backed Maine Black Bears | 50c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf47…4d00backed UMBC Retrievers | 52c | 28.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce96…ff5cbacked Maine Black Bears | 50c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f96…92e0backed Maine Black Bears | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed UMBC Retrievers | 77c | 18.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 71cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb82e…2bbfbacked UMBC Retrievers | 75c | 18.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: UMBC Retrievers (-8.5)this page
- Maine Black Bears vs. UMBC RetrieversUMBC Retrievers won
- Maine Black Bears vs. UMBC Retrievers: O/U 130.5Over won
- Maine Black Bears vs. UMBC Retrievers: O/U 131.5Under won
- Maine Black Bears vs. UMBC Retrievers: O/U 132.5Under won
- Maine Black Bears vs. UMBC Retrievers: O/U 133.5Under won
- Maine Black Bears vs. UMBC Retrievers: O/U 134.5Under won
- Maine Black Bears vs. UMBC Retrievers: O/U 135.5Under won
- Spread: UMBC Retrievers (-6.5)UMBC Retrievers won
- Spread: UMBC Retrievers (-7.5)Maine Black Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.