Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Maine Black Bears vs. UMBC Retrievers: O/U 135.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d422d7efa5df9be90314fdb67cb30ba84e3b6deefe6b9d10746f3764f0c7e7b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,433
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,354
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,433 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cb…28adbacked Over | 49c | 22,499$11,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,029.11 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 51c | 13,995$7,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,857.42 | 906 | 45.4%411 W · 495 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Under | 50c | 3,200$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,600 | 691 | 42.8%296 W · 395 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe948…ff23backed Under | 52c | 3,000$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440 | 54 | 66.7%36 W · 18 L | +8.9wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x34da…ac26backed Under | 57c | 841.81$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.95 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 52cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 48c | 750$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.5 | 497 | 46.5%231 W · 266 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 53c | 343.99$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.68 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 50c | 251.25$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.63 | 1,633 | 47.3%773 W · 860 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Under | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 402 | 52.7%212 W · 190 L | -9.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 44c | 122.92$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.33 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 42c | 105.07$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.13 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc29d…3352backed Under | 55c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 43 | 72.1%31 W · 12 L | +6.6wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Under | 50c | 58.37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 386 | 45.9%177 W · 209 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Under | 52c | 29.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Maine Black Bears vs. UMBC Retrievers: O/U 135.5this page
- Maine Black Bears vs. UMBC RetrieversUMBC Retrievers won
- Maine Black Bears vs. UMBC Retrievers: O/U 130.5Over won
- Maine Black Bears vs. UMBC Retrievers: O/U 131.5Under won
- Maine Black Bears vs. UMBC Retrievers: O/U 132.5Under won
- Maine Black Bears vs. UMBC Retrievers: O/U 133.5Under won
- Maine Black Bears vs. UMBC Retrievers: O/U 134.5Under won
- Spread: UMBC Retrievers (-6.5)UMBC Retrievers won
- Spread: UMBC Retrievers (-7.5)Maine Black Bears won
- Spread: UMBC Retrievers (-8.5)Maine Black Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.