TailMyPicks

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Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Maine Black Bears vs. UMBC Retrievers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
UMBC Retrieversof Maine Black Bears, UMBC Retrievers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$40,386
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$48,733

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,386 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa28f…d25ebacked Maine Black Bears10c4,222$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.450%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed UMBC Retrievers78c3,637$2,828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$808.912,57947.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L-42.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Maine Black Bears22c3,581$802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801.8439744.8%178 W · 219 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked UMBC Retrievers76c2,219$1,684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535.261,39144.1%613 W · 778 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38c2…d3a7backed UMBC Retrievers73c1,976$1,446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.1616056.9%91 W · 69 L+0.6wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Maine Black Bears13c1,631$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.132,25442.2%951 W · 1,303 L+3.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Maine Black Bears15c1,391$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.392,55541.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fba…1404backed Maine Black Bears8c1,315$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.482650%13 W · 13 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Maine Black Bears15c1,276$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.563,90558.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L+165.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x20ae…f107backed Maine Black Bears27c878.45$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.1342327.2%115 W · 308 L-10.9wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Maine Black Bears3c647.22$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.421,07443.3%465 W · 609 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe35e…7754backed UMBC Retrievers78c570.39$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.051250%6 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Maine Black Bears6c509.55$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.641,88745.2%853 W · 1,034 L+6.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Maine Black Bears9c447.95$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.1557335.6%204 W · 369 L-27.3wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-20.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xea81…eeaebacked Maine Black Bears24c382.58$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.381,22727.8%341 W · 886 L-0.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Maine Black Bears19c354.96$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.062,12450.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L+40.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc526…bf92backed Maine Black Bears23c347.83$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80140%0 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5df1…2da7backed Maine Black Bears13c309.28$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.818930.3%27 W · 62 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0887…7864backed Maine Black Bears5c252.77$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12fe…38cfbacked Maine Black Bears22c250$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551,26043.3%545 W · 715 L+34.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24db…1332backed Maine Black Bears25c241.2$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6013219.7%26 W · 106 L-8.0wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-32.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b20…d430backed Maine Black Bears11c227.27$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2550%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f29…9d73backed UMBC Retrievers77c199.98$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468253.7%44 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb81d…c6c0backed UMBC Retrievers78c189$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.589355.9%52 W · 41 L+5.9wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+17.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Maine Black Bears24c168.84$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4712,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Maine Black Bears24c164.87$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.341,63347.3%773 W · 860 L+25.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Maine Black Bears24c148.45$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.134,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9bdb…a90dbacked Maine Black Bears17c145$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0714925.5%38 W · 111 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-20.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Maine Black Bears23c140.75$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.552,04832.7%670 W · 1,378 L-16.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09d2…cc27backed Maine Black Bears8c140.12$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6236845.7%168 W · 200 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x313d…6f98backed UMBC Retrievers75c140$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356767.2%45 W · 22 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed UMBC Retrievers77c132$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.362152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked UMBC Retrievers78c128.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.2140252.7%212 W · 190 L-9.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19f8…98f9backed UMBC Retrievers79c126.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.5848462.8%304 W · 180 L-0.5wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f27…781dbacked UMBC Retrievers79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211593.3%14 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.16per pick78cpaid+19.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8103…7eeebacked UMBC Retrievers77c100$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x94fe…eff9backed Maine Black Bears25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked UMBC Retrievers78c89.05$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2945953.8%247 W · 212 L-1.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea9e…d3fbbacked Maine Black Bears21c86.56$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.18707.1%5 W · 65 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick11cpaid-23.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3bec…6997backed UMBC Retrievers78c86$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.924052.5%21 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Maine Black Bears23c81.62$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.773,68442.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L+32.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Maine Black Bears18c81$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.541,95145.1%880 W · 1,071 L-19.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc613…6a7fbacked UMBC Retrievers78c51.28$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5956…e127backed Maine Black Bears22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112860.7%17 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+17.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b80…8e56backed Maine Black Bears22c49$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.784047.5%19 W · 21 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7685…482cbacked UMBC Retrievers80c46.69$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.342751.9%14 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick60cpaid-16.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed UMBC Retrievers79c46.42$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8473549.1%361 W · 374 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1941…891bbacked UMBC Retrievers78c32.12$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.12540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-37.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9e9…bba0backed UMBC Retrievers77c25.97$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72f9…629abacked UMBC Retrievers75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51650%8 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd399…3f4bbacked UMBC Retrievers78c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked UMBC Retrievers77c14.04$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.234,55250.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L-36.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.