Tennis · resolved market
ITF Portoroz: Amarissa Kiara Toth vs Carlota Martinez Cirez
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f69a3ea678dda5f04fd1770f74eca8354f9261f459c137b43d39b99835407c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Carlota Martinez Cirezof Amarissa Kiara Toth, Carlota Martinez Cirez
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,558
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,553
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,558 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9535…ccdcbacked Amarissa Kiara Toth | 25c | 579.94$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.49 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Carlota Martinez Cirez | 79c | 258.62$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.13 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Carlota Martinez Cirez | 75c | 194.84$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Amarissa Kiara Toth | 16c | 151$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed Carlota Martinez Cirez | 72c | 138.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 252 | 57.9%146 W · 106 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Carlota Martinez Cirez | 62c | 118.37$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.49 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Amarissa Kiara Toth | 33c | 114.87$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11cd…e5a8backed Amarissa Kiara Toth | 66c | 100.78$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.96 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf01f…e8fbbacked Amarissa Kiara Toth | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Carlota Martinez Cirez | 34c | 65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Amarissa Kiara Toth | 28c | 58.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Carlota Martinez Cirez | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Carlota Martinez Cirez | 33c | 44.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ae…f71ebacked Amarissa Kiara Toth | 65c | 34.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 390 | 39.5%154 W · 236 L | -46.8wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Carlota Martinez Cirez | 71c | 30.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Carlota Martinez Cirez | 79c | 21.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 1,174 | 51.9%609 W · 565 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.