Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f6d37478a8b25bbf24c5cb2658b53c094b771bfc03f116930a326d6a664fbd6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,537
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,803
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,537 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 393.32$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 7c | 222.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 48c | 154.62$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.53 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed Yes | 66c | 151.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.55 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 113.6$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.84 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 76c | 101.05$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.83 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 68c | 90.69$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.67 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 34c | 64.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed Yes | 75c | 64.9$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 31c | 64.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.56 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 34c | 58.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.62 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 36c | 47.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed No | 24c | 45.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 53c | 44.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 66c | 43.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 33c | 43.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…c72dbacked No | 68c | 42.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca61…cd2dbacked Yes | 35c | 39.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbca…dc2cbacked Yes | 33c | 38.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +97.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 68c | 36.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9232…c250backed No | 68c | 35.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…08b5backed Yes | 73c | 35.03$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 36c | 33.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.53 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 70c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 70c | 26.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dba…3de8backed No | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 63c | 21.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…cd3cbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -13.1wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 64c | 19.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 18.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18c3…2a14backed Yes | 70c | 15.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 77c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on August 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on August 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.