Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c41d1e5780b99d9c83c72c0f92783d05af127a53b4b9a071e308c51cf6f9012
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,430
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,342
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,430 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 31c | 657.76$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.05 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed Yes | 5c | 449.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 17c | 367.43$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.46 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 23c | 272.86$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.22 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 73c | 271.88$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.73 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd394…7e90backed Yes | 5c | 194.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 6cpaid | +141.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 78c | 193.13$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.13 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 20c | 190.25$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 77c | 183.47$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56aa…9e31backed No | 80c | 175.46$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.3 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +26%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 10c | 154.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 15c | 153.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 29c | 87.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 68c | 78.8$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 79c | 77.88$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…cd3cbacked Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -13.1wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd4…6084backed Yes | 25c | 58.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 135 | 34.1%46 W · 89 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…122ebacked Yes | 20c | 52.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed Yes | 35c | 39.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 78c | 39.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ce…c1fdbacked No | 77c | 32.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 78c | 32.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71a5…3783backed No | 73c | 24.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c28…9844backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 70cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3614…2397backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2491…8456backed No | 78c | 19.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 76cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 67c | 17.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 15.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…cf41backed No | 73c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 77c | 13.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on August 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on August 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on August 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.