Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will FK Crvena zvezda win on 2025-11-06?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f8679cc8b26259fc69152737889d18b7a8799d0c45982928c2c8d08ce75d3a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,362
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,542
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,362 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 31c | 12,353$3,806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,547.71 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc58c…0a81backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb90c…9a6abacked No | 69c | 6,466$4,438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,438.21 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked Yes | 68c | 5,652$3,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,811.95 | 108 | 60.2%65 W · 43 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0007…3545backed No | 70c | 4,585$3,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,209.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 38c | 4,534$1,703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,702.56 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eac…4c8cbacked No | 68c | 3,257$2,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,214.76 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Yes | 32c | 2,101$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,421 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc31d…93f4backed No | 68c | 1,558$1,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,059.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6eae…fbaebacked Yes | 32c | 1,556$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,058.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0353…c2ffbacked Yes | 36c | 1,429$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$914.56 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Yes | 38c | 1,293$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807.71 | 121 | 66.9%81 W · 40 L | +17.2wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x26ef…6cedbacked No | 69c | 1,165$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fd…dbc5backed Yes | 32c | 1,165$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 32c | 1,050$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714 | 260 | 22.3%58 W · 202 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f99cbacked Yes | 36c | 1,002$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.31 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd14a…e912backed No | 68c | 1,000$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2f…36f2backed Yes | 32c | 969.52$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37d5…9417backed No | 69c | 969.52$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf24…15ecbacked Yes | 19c | 684.01$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.44 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked No | 67c | 677$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.59 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 34c | 661.91$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.14 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20d8…1b0ebacked Yes | 35c | 560.63$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +105%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Yes | 30c | 552.88$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.26 | 151 | 51%77 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 78c | 541.19$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.34 | 428 | 44.9%192 W · 236 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 60c | 531.35$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.83 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 58c | 448.17$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.48 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 21c | 384.15$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.02 | 153 | 76.5%117 W · 36 L | +37.4wins | +0.24per pick | 52cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…74c7backed No | 16c | 375$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 74c | 311$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.18 | 200 | 42%84 W · 116 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17cb…3ab8backed Yes | 29c | 239.14$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.14 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 31c | 197.39$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.2 | 197 | 36%71 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 26c | 160$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.4 | 136 | 66.2%90 W · 46 L | +12.2wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x70b0…b71fbacked Yes | 37c | 160$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.3 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -7.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 28c | 153.21$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.61 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed Yes | 27c | 150.1$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.32 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…8502backed Yes | 30c | 126.67$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.67 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 39c | 118.86$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.51 | 245 | 57.6%141 W · 104 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc420…2badbacked No | 66c | 104.55$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4108…a80dbacked No | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…0730backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccb…7c48backed No | 66c | 90.91$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 66c | 87.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.08 | 246 | 55.7%137 W · 109 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Yes | 31c | 81.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.57 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55fb…4ec4backed Yes | 32c | 79.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.79 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb89a…033bbacked Yes | 27c | 74.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.03 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9318…a645backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc450…f2f7backed No | 69c | 57.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe505…fadbbacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -4.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 19c | 54.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.51 | 338 | 47%159 W · 179 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50bd…962abacked No | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e4…5762backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc6…0f52backed No | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf13…a49cbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +79.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89b8…5cf9backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x416e…6f5dbacked No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdf…edf9backed No | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FK Crvena zvezda win on 2025-11-06?this page
- Will FK Crvena zvezda vs. Lille OSC end in a draw?No won
- Will Lille OSC win on 2025-11-06?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.