College Football · resolved market
Texas State vs. South Alabama
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fa4b48313be1db0dfa56e7d7d36caa8378d27c9919ccb68d36e96328acd2256
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texas Stateof Texas State, South Alabama
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,547
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,694
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,547 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Texas State | 45c | 1,952$887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,065.29 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed South Alabama | 5c | 1,662$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.96 | 237 | 0.8%2 W · 235 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -98.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed South Alabama | 49c | 1,016$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 398 | 47.7%190 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…d99bbacked Texas State | 51c | 899.3$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.66 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8369…3c94backed South Alabama | 49c | 720.04$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed South Alabama | 53c | 715.14$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.27 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked South Alabama | 57c | 579.04$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.05 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a67…dc7cbacked Texas State | 43c | 579.04$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.05 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x438e…9704backed South Alabama | 49c | 545$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.65 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…3cf2backed South Alabama | 46c | 496.68$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.47 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -5.1wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked South Alabama | 7c | 366.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe70a…6de8backed Texas State | 48c | 309$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.31 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked South Alabama | 46c | 289.85$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.93 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f8…98f9backed South Alabama | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…d9ebbacked Texas State | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95e5…44d9backed Texas State | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c91…0505backed Texas State | 54c | 185$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Texas State | 53c | 184.46$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.7 | 98 | 43.9%43 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa586…86f5backed South Alabama | 25c | 160$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae6f…7399backed South Alabama | 48c | 125.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -6.0wins | -0.33per pick | 61cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf423…2360backed South Alabama | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e8b…4f21backed South Alabama | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…018abacked Texas State | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.61 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Texas State | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.21 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x193c…5b89backed Texas State | 53c | 99.65$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked South Alabama | 47c | 98.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.52 | 124 | 33.1%41 W · 83 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…cf4cbacked Texas State | 52c | 98.48$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.78 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc21d…4ed8backed South Alabama | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…7b96backed South Alabama | 49c | 49.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2399…2332backed Texas State | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…b43cbacked Texas State | 65c | 18.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.