College Football · resolved market
Spread: Fresno State (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fa92668c71a5ca75b0dcc02be1f9e460f4e76a96de59c275bbeec52f8d2aa0b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fresno Stateof Fresno State, San Jose State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,262
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,262
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,262 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Fresno State | 49c | 6,641$3,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,405.74 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked San Jose State | 52c | 4,855$2,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,524.56 | 381 | 42.5%162 W · 219 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked San Jose State | 51c | 1,968$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 224 | 37.5%84 W · 140 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Fresno State | 49c | 1,611$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.66 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed San Jose State | 49c | 1,460$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.4 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed San Jose State | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Fresno State | 50c | 373.52$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.76 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Fresno State | 49c | 322.22$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.33 | 384 | 50.5%194 W · 190 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed San Jose State | 51c | 222.22$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.33 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Fresno State | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Fresno State | 49c | 53.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Fresno State | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed San Jose State | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked San Jose State | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66b8…eccfbacked San Jose State | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d16…12d0backed San Jose State | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Fresno State (-3.5)this page
- Fresno State vs. San Jose StateFresno State won
- Fresno State vs. San Jose State: O/U 46.5Over won
- Fresno State vs. San Jose State: O/U 47.5Over won
- Spread: Fresno State (-2.5)Fresno State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.