College Football · resolved market
Fresno State vs. San Jose State: O/U 46.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43029340fedc9be42f172508e4c5e8b5e547e0ce1af5e5f11ee60d6bfbde9418
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,359
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,361
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,359 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Over | 48c | 15,168$7,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,943.35 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Under | 52c | 12,929$6,723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,722.98 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 53c | 5,381$2,852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,851.85 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…26bfbacked Under | 51c | 4,804$2,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,450.08 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Over | 49c | 4,500$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,300 | 100 | 47%47 W · 53 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Over | 46c | 2,500$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 54c | 1,873$1,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010.9 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Over | 51c | 1,500$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735 | 261 | 47.9%125 W · 136 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 49c | 1,500$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee0…5233backed Over | 48c | 956.25$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 52c | 790.07$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.84 | 381 | 42.5%162 W · 219 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 48c | 680$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.6 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 384 | 50.5%194 W · 190 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 49c | 458$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.46 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f7…b542backed Over | 48c | 395.83$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.83 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 48c | 350$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 216 | 44.9%97 W · 119 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 50c | 139$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.75 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 119.29$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.45 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb6…25eabacked Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5960…d692backed Over | 48c | 88$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.76 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Over | 48c | 66.06$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.35 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 45c | 56.78$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.23 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Under | 49c | 52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 76 | 60.5%46 W · 30 L | +6.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Over | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Under | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…6ea7backed Under | 55c | 26.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fresno State vs. San Jose State: O/U 46.5this page
- Fresno State vs. San Jose StateFresno State won
- Fresno State vs. San Jose State: O/U 47.5Over won
- Spread: Fresno State (-2.5)Fresno State won
- Spread: Fresno State (-3.5)Fresno State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.