Europa Conference League · resolved market
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Malmö FF: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fb627b4b140f6259f54994923cc995e6fee60eca0f313a7c347a9f6b8d276c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,553
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,722
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,553 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 74c | 6,558$4,847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,710.54 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 21c | 3,599$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.46 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 26c | 1,048$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.49 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Over | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 35c | 570$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.5 | 63 | 23.8%15 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…d4debacked Over | 63c | 324.05$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.1 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b7…37d5backed Over | 60c | 177.18$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.31 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1be0…dc27backed Under | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 38c | 125.05$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.98 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x051c…f25dbacked Over | 45c | 120$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 61c | 51.7$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 92 | 27.2%25 W · 67 L | -11.8wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -43%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 35c | 29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 379 | 26.1%99 W · 280 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 351 | 58.1%204 W · 147 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Malmö FF: O/U 3.5this page
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Malmö FF: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Malmö FF: O/U 1.5Over won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Malmö FF: O/U 2.5Over won
- Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-2.5)Nottingham Forest FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.